Let’s talk about the Bitcoin bull case vs. the bear case!
0:00 – INTRO bull case vs bear case
2:52 Setting up the indicator tally
3:29 On-chain indicators and market reset signals
4:01 Puell Multiple favors the bears
6:37 Weekly and monthly RSI favor bulls
10:30 MVRV Z-Score and realized price
16:40 ThermoCap, cycle cross, and holder accumulation
22:13 Time-based cycle comparisons
22:31 Comparing the drawdown with 2019
26:05 Low-to-low cycle timing
29:23 Post-halving timing and volume spikes
33:58 Social interest and the thematic ETF bear case
36:37 Coinbase rankings versus declining search interest
37:54 Bitcoin ETF parallels with QQQ
43:04 Gold and long-term social-interest risks
45:22 Thematic ETFs underperforming the market
47:54 Market-cap, risk, and macro indicators
48:22 Stablecoin supply and total market-cap signals
49:50 Risk metric and quantile regression levels
51:42 S&P 500 midterm-year correction risk
55:09 CME gaps and one-year ROI
1:00:07 Bitcoin buying strategy and moving-average signals
1:00:46 DCA strategy below 0.3 risk
1:03:39 50-week moving average confirmation
1:05:45 200-day average and Pi Cycle Bottom
1:07:35 Golden Cross and dollar headwinds
1:11:13 Whale activity and final indicator tally
1:11:42 Low whale activity favors bears
1:13:27 Count quarter and combined risk metric
1:15:32 Closing remarks for bulls vs bears
1:16:14 – Summary | OUTRO
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