Treasury yields (^TYX, ^TNX, ^FVX) are in focus Thursday morning as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled a strategic focus on the 10-year yield rather than the path of Federal Reserve interest rates. Raymond James Managing Director Ed Mills joins Morning Brief to discuss the administration’s policy perspectives. Mills highlights the Trump administration’s plan to extend and permanently implement the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) tax cuts. He warns that this could potentially add $4 trillion to the US debt and deficit, with additional proposed policies like eliminating taxes on tips and social security potentially pushing the deficit to $5 trillion or more. “If we see a bill that would add to the debt and deficit by more than $5 trillion, it is going to be a challenge to keep the long end of the curve down,” Mills explains. However, he also notes potential offsetting factors, including efforts to cut government spending, tariff policies that could generate government revenue, and deregulatory measures aimed at promoting economic growth. Mills suggests that these elements, “in combination… would help bondholders get more optimistic about the future fiscal path of the United States, and therefore bond yields should reflect that.” To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here.
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