rewrite this title Mortgage Rates Flatten, but They’re Already Higher Than July’s Average – NerdWallet

In the first week of August, the average 30-year mortgage rate stayed mostly flat at 6.63% APR. This is three basis points lower than a week ago.

A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point, and we calculate our weekly average using daily APRs provided by Zillow over the past five business days.

🤓 Kate on Rates: July 30, 2026

Over the past five days, the lowest average APR was 6.47% on Thursday, Aug. 6, according to Zillow data. This was a 12-basis-point drop from the previous day’s average.

Rates fell after national payroll processor ADP released its July data, which showed that real private sector job growth (44,000 additions) was weaker than forecasted (75,000 additions, as reported by Dow Jones).

According to Zillow data, the highest average APR reported over the past five days was 6.7% on Tuesday, Aug. 4.

This was on par with where rates ended the last week of July.

Throughout last month, mortgage rates trended higher when fighting and tensions escalated in Iran. The highest average daily rate reading for the whole month was 6.75% on July 27, the day after the U.S. completed 13 consecutive nights of strikes on Iranian targets. Rates then began to fall once the attacks were paused.

Analysts will be looking at this data in relation to Friday’s jobs report. Odds of a rate hike in September will likely drop if unemployment is rising, but inflation isn’t as bad as some fear. The odds could also fall if both inflation and unemployment are relatively flat.

Either scenario would likely bring lower mortgage rates next week.

On the other hand, odds of a rate hike in September will likely increase if unemployment is manageable, but inflation is rising faster than expected. Rising odds of a September rate hike would push mortgage rates up.

If unemployment and inflation are both rising, it will be harder to gauge central bankers’ potential rate decision just yet.

One thing to keep in mind here: July’s data is backwards-looking, and mortgage lenders are always looking to the future. Any news from Iran will also sway rates day-to-day — potentially running counter to how we’d expect rates to react to the economic data alone.

While it’s impossible to time the market to get the lowest rate, there are certain predictable patterns that can guide your strategy.

For example, news from Iran that points to a possible peace agreement tends to lead to lower mortgage rates the next day. If you’re hearing positive rumblings, it could be a good time to apply.

And if the rates you’re seeing are just not in your budget right now, you can make the most of this time by focusing on tightening up your financial profile. By paying down existing debts and working on your credit health, you’ll be in a better position to score a good deal once rates come down.

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About the author

Taylor Getler is a home and mortgages writer for NerdWallet. Her work has been featured in outlets such as MarketWatch, Yahoo Finance, MSN and Nasdaq. Taylor is enthusiastic about financial literacy and helping consumers make smart, informed choices with their money.