Visualizing the Business Cycle

Markets don’t move in isolation, they move through cycles.

In this video, we step back from the day-to-day noise and visualize the business cycle through the lens of the S&P 500 (SPX), while layering in three key macro variables: the unemployment rate, inflation, and interest rates.

Instead of treating price action as random, we map where equities tend to peak and trough relative to labor market conditions, tightening and easing cycles, and inflation regimes. You’ll see how shifts in unemployment often lag market turning points, how rate policy interacts with risk assets, and why inflation trends matter more at certain stages of the cycle than others.

The goal is simple: build a mental framework for understanding where we are, not just where price is.

If you care about global liquidity, cycle structure, and risk management across equities, Bitcoin, and real assets, this framework will help you contextualize the bigger picture.

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Disclaimer: The information presented within this video is NOT financial advice.

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