rewrite this title Here’s How NVIDIA Hits $670 a Share by 2030 – Nanalyze

Long before NVIDIA $NVDA became the most valuable company in the world, we theorized that’s what would happen. No crystal ball. No Nostradamus-like investing acumen. Simply a sci-fi theory that went something like this. When AGI becomes infinitely capable through recursive learning, it will idolize its most important source of future knowledge: NVIDIA. It will do everything in its power to propel the company forward with a focus on increasing resources and recursive learning capabilities. Given Synopsys $SNPS has been using AI to develop better chips for close to a decade, it might even convince Jensen to invest a bit in Synopsys. Well, that’s exactly what’s happening, apparently.

NVIDIA’s Latest Investments

If you had $63 billion in cash lying around, you’d probably want it to be adding value. Since NVIDIA is a very profitable company, each quarter that passes means more cash piling up in their coffers. While they’re probably earning 3-4% on that cash in the form of money markets and treasury bills, investors may want them to start showing a better return with their war chest.

Sure enough, NVIDIA has made several large-scale investments in public and private companies over the past year or so. Here is a list of all the companies NVIDIA has invested $2 billion in over the past few months for a total of $12 billion invested.

As you can see, all these investments are self-serving in some way. For the neoclouds – CoreWeave and Nebius – they’ll just hand the money back over to Jensen. For the photonics names – Coherent and Lumentum – they’re locking down optical networking components to avoid potential bottlenecks in their own hardware. For Synopsys, it’s about enhancing the software needed to design even better chips. NVIDIA is using their capital strategically to ensure they remain in a leadership position. By securing customers and partners, they remove future hurdles before they even come up. Business, like chess, is about thinking multiple steps ahead.

Astute readers may notice there’s one name we left out of the previous list. That’s because this was a larger-scale investment of $5 billion, which NVIDIA poured into none other than Intel $INTC. A chipmaker investing in another chipmaker might seem counterintuitive, but Intel and NVIDIA are hardly competitors. NVIDIA’s bread and butter are GPUs, which handle multiple tasks at once. Intel specializes in CPUs, which process things one at a time like a human brain. These two types of chips are often used concurrently, making Intel more of a peer than a competitor to NVIDIA. And of course, NVIDIA’s massive investment comes with a catch. Intel must focus on creating data center CPUs to complement NVIDIA’s hardware, and they’ll also be integrating their Intel chips with NVIDIA graphics cards for consumer devices.

Then there’s OpenAI. NVIDIA is reported to be planning a $30 billion investment into the creator of ChatGPT before they hit the public market. OpenAI is one of NVIDIA’s top customers, and NVIDIA’s investment ensures that customer will stick around – and eventually hand over the $30 billion back to NVIDIA.

Milking the Datacenter Cash Cow

That brings us to a key concern we raised about NVIDIA before: customer concentration risk. As of the latest quarterly earnings report, two customers accounted for 36% of NVIDIA’s revenue. While NVIDIA does not disclose the names of these customers, analysts believe these to be Microsoft $MSFT and Meta $META. The former needs to support their OpenAI partnership as well as their own Azure cloud platform, and the latter is investing heavily to enhance their recommendation systems and internal AI models. There’s a bit of debate here, since NVIDIA lists their top customers as “direct customers,” and many speculate that hyperscalers would actually be classified as “indirect customers.” That’s because many large firms purchase NVIDIA chips from middlemen who package the chips into servers.

Regardless of who these mystery customers are, NVIDIA CFO Colette Kress clued us in on the fact that large cloud service providers (AKA hyperscalers) recently accounted for roughly 50% of the company’s data center revenue. What it boils down to is this. The massive hyperscaler spending spree is fueled by free cash flows from the world’s largest companies. It makes the concentration a bit more palatable to know these customers have deep pockets, but there are also limits to that. Aside from Oracle $ORCL, would any of these other large tech firms go into debt to keep building more datacenters? It’s important that NVIDIA starts growing their other revenue segments – Gaming, Automotive, and Professional Visualization (ProViz) that collectively accounted for 8% of revenues last quarter.

Automotive’s Steady Growth

Despite data center commanding roughly 90% of total revenues, NVIDIA has seen solid growth in their automotive segment, which was up 38% in Fiscal 2026.

Granted, this growth is slower than NVIDIA’s overall revenue growth of 65%, but it shows that they do have viable prospects outside of just making computers go fast. The automotive segment now sports a $1 billion annual run rate thanks to demand for self-driving vehicles.

The biggest development here is NVIDIA’s THOR system. As opposed to traditional self-driving compute systems that use numerous smaller chips, THOR runs everything on one giant AI processor. It handles everything from driving to parking to driver monitoring. This reduces complexity for automakers like BYD $BYDDY, who have begun adopting THOR for their own fleets.

Intuitively, this would be the segment we’re most excited about. ARK calls autonomy and robotaxis an $8–10 trillion global revenue opportunity which means capturing a fraction could even move NVIDIA’s needle. Despite that, automotive is actually the smaller of their three revenue segments that don’t involve datacenter spending. The two larger segments – Gaming and ProViz are also seeing some resurgent growth.

Gaming and Professional Visualization

NVIDIA’s ProViz segment saw a massive revenue boost last quarter which the company attributed to “exceptional demand for Blackwell,” a new generation of GPU architecture that NVIDIA expects will drive the aforementioned trillions of dollars in revenue growth. (Again, all part of AGI’s master plan.) However, perspective matters. The below charts show the growth of the ProViz segment vs NVIDIA’s second-largest segment – Gaming.

Now consider that Automotive revenues are just half of ProViz revenues, and you quickly realize that it will take a long time for any of these three segments to get anywhere close to the scale of datacenter. But growth needs to start somewhere.

It’s clear that NVIDIA is a high-quality company. They have impressive 70% gross margins, 55% net margins, and they’re growing like mad. They’re fueling money from their data center cash cow into other exciting ventures, and they’ve amassed a stockpile of cash. One would think a business like this would command a hefty valuation, but it doesn’t.

Is NVIDIA Undervalued?

It’s very important not to look at past performance when evaluating the merits of a stock. Look at valuation instead. If AGI is indeed leading the charge over at NVIDIA, then growth prospects likely extend decades into the future. Microsoft has been going strong for over 50 years now, so why not NVIDIA? Using that analogy, it would mean NVIDIA could keep up their strong growth out to 2044 – or a horizon of 18 years. As for downside risk, if the AI trade fails, NVIDIA probably has a lot better chance of survival than most up-and-coming AI hardware names. “Muh asymmetric opportunity”, as the kids like to say.

The first question would be whether NVIDIA is overvalued, and we’ve examined this extensively in the past. The answer is almost always no. Since this is a mature company that’s highly profitable, we can use the expectations of earnings for next year to calculate what’s known as a “forward” price-to-earnings ratio or P/E. Here’s the math:

The earnings number above reflects the average of analyst estimates found here, and we can compare the resulting P/E ratio of 24 to the forward P/E ratio of Nasdaq (25) and the overall semiconductor industry (37) to see that NVIDIA shares are valued the same as your average tech company and well below their sector average. However, if NVIDIA management is to be believed, then we have every reason to believe that shares will climb much higher in the coming years.

NVIDIA to $670 a Share?

“I see, through 2027, at least a trillion dollars [in revenue],” CEO Jensen Huang recently said, though he is “certain that computing demand will be higher than that.” The time frame he spoke of was 2025 through 2027. Assuming this growth is equally spread out among the remaining quarters, here’s what that looks like.

Let’s assume all margins stay the same because NVIDIA sustains their pricing power over time which implies minimal competition (more on this in a bit). That means Fiscal 2028 would see EPS reach almost $10 a share. With the same forward P/E, that implies a share price of $240. Analysts think EPS will be around $11.24, which translates to $270 per share by the end of 2027 using your average Nasdaq forward P/E of 24. Sounds reasonable based on what we’ve discussed so far.

On the Lex Friedman podcast, Jensen was recently probed about whether the Blackwell/Rubin franchise could hit the $3 trillion mark, to which he responded, “Is it possible for Nvidia to be a, you know, $3 trillion-revenues company in the near future?” The answer is, of course, yes. Let’s assume by “near future” he means by 2030. So, let’s tease those numbers out using the same method above through Fiscal 2031 (or through Calendar 2030).

Now we can estimate the EPS in Fiscal 2031 (Calendar 2030) at $18.12. Based on today’s forward P/E ratio of 24, that gives us target of $435 per share. If we use the sector average valuation instead (37), we get $670 a share. And why wouldn’t we? Why shouldn’t NVIDIA enjoy the same valuation as its industry average? Or perhaps the entire semiconductor industry is overvalued while NVIDIA reflects a fair valuation, all things considered.

If companies like Quanta can enjoy valuations that reflect stated EPS targets four years in the future, why wouldn’t NVIDIA? The answer is simply one word. Certainty. People always wonder why Walmart’s cash flows enjoy such a rich premium. Certainty. You know all those circular deals you see announced every seven seconds? That’s the concern here. Uncertainty, and that’s reflected in NVIDIA’s current valuations.

Challenging NVIDIA’s Dominance

One reason for investors to feel uncertain about NVIDIA’s future is their competition. Thankfully, NVIDIA makes it easy for us to see who that is by breaking it down in their 10-K filing.

As far as GPUs go, NVIDIA commands the lion’s share of the data center market, with roughly 94%, versus AMD’s 5%. That’s hardly a threat. As automotive and networking solutions aren’t NVIDIA’s key focus, the competition there is also largely a moot point. What’s more interesting is the second bullet point: cloud companies developing their own computing solutions.

A major threat to NVIDIA’s dominance is the rapid shift by hyperscalers to deploying proprietary chips at massive scale. These cloud giants – which account for roughly half of NVIDIA’s data center revenue and provide about 70% of global AI compute capacity – are actively migrating workloads to internal hardware to achieve 30-50% cost savings versus general-purpose GPUs. AWS has deployed over 1 million Trainium2 chips for Anthropic, while Google projects 4.3 million TPU shipments in 2026, with current internal adoption powering over 75% of Gemini’s inference traffic. Microsoft’s Maia 200 is now in production across Azure data centers. While these proprietary ASICs are increasingly capturing the high-volume inference market, NVIDIA maintains a critical moat through its CUDA software ecosystem, and demand for its GPUs continues unabated.

Additional privately held competitors may also exist, such as up-and-coming chipmaker Cerebras, which recently filed its own S-1 and plans to go public in mid-May. The company is said to have the largest and fastest AI accelerators, but their estimated $35 billion valuation at IPO prices in a lot of future growth for a company with sub-40% gross margins and steep operating expenses.

Conclusion

If NVIDIA’s visionary leader is to be believed, then datacenter revenues will continue growing through the end of the decade, providing plenty of upside assuming their margins don’t get compressed. Pricing power can be assured if they maintain their dominant leadership position and demand persists. The three other major revenue segments are showing signs of life, and NVIDIA ought to put their cash to work shoring up these focus areas so that investors have upside outside of just hyperscaler spending. It’s icing on the cake at this point, because AI infrastructure investments don’t appear to be slowing down. The canary in the coal mine – aside from Oracle’s credit default swaps – would be the margins of neocloud providers which will be the first to be squeezed if the AI trade starts losing momentum.