Carson Group chief market strategist Ryan Detrick joins Market Domination to discuss his 2025 market forecasts (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC) while the Federal Reserve is anticipating fewer than expected interest rate cuts this year. Detrick highlights historical market patterns, noting that after years with gains of 20% or more, “that following year is actually up more than 10% on average, higher 82% of the time.” He points out that with two consecutive years of 20% gains, a pattern seen only four times in history, “that next year has been higher every time, up 20% on average.” While Detrick doesn’t anticipate another 20% gain this year, he forecasts a 12-15% increase, assuring that “we’re still in a bull market.” Addressing bond market dynamics (^TNX, ^TYX, ^FVX), Detrick identifies 5% as a “major psychological level” for Treasury yields, which are approaching 4.75%. He notes that yields are rising due to economic strength, and markets have largely priced in higher rates and a strong US dollar (DX=F, DX-Y.NYB). Looking ahead, Detrick anticipates 2 to 4 rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2025, suggesting this could create “a lower move in the dollar and a lower move in yields, and that’s probably going to create a pretty bullish event if and when that takes place.” Read up on Yahoo Finance senior Fed reporter Jennifer Schonberger’s coverage of the central bank’s December meeting minutes.
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