rewrite this title Mortgage Rates Today, Tuesday, July 7: A Smidge Lower – NerdWallet

Mortgage rates are still softening as markets continue to digest the less-than-stellar June jobs report.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage ticked down to 6.36% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is two basis points lower than yesterday and four basis points lower than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

A weaker-than-we-thought labor market should make the Federal Reserve less likely to raise the federal funds rate when it meets at the end of this month, but markets are still placing the odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike at roughly one in four, according to CME FedWatch. Fed chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks last week that “if there were people in households or the business sector in the financial markets who thought that this central bank was going to be comfortable with an inflation objective above 2%, well, I guess they’d be disappointed” may be boosting those odds.

For more about what that means, keep reading below the chart.

But for the Federal Reserve to feel confident about making that move, the central bankers also need to feel assured that the labor market is healthy. Higher interest rates slow inflation by discouraging business borrowing and expansion, which can also slow hiring.

Lately it had seemed like this wouldn’t be a problem since the labor market was doing surprisingly well. But those expecting fireworks from last week’s Employment Situation Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics got more fizzle than spark. June job gains came in well below projections, at 57,000 compared to an anticipated 100,000 or more.

“The labor force is aging and immigration policies have stymied a major source of continued labor force growth,” explains NerdWallet senior economist Elizabeth Renter. “Still, employers across industries have been adding jobs in 2026. There were 92,000 jobs added, on average, in each of the first six months of the year. There’s bound to be some fluctuations from month to month, so this past month’s slowing can be taken in stride until there is any additional evidence of trouble.”

Still, you wouldn’t be wrong to think this feels like enough to keep the Fed in wait-and-see mode. But it sure seems like at least some of the Federal Reserve bank presidents have been trying to set the stage for rate hikes, even if chair Warsh wants the central bank to say less. (Warsh reiterating the Fed’s commitment to 2% inflation doesn’t count, apparently.)

Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).

With rates where they are right now, you could start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.86% or higher.

There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.

Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.

In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:

Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.

Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.

About the author

Kate Wood is a lending expert and certified financial health counselor (CHFC) who joined NerdWallet in 2019. With an educational background in sociology, Kate feels strongly about issues like inequality in homeownership and higher education, and relishes any opportunity to demystify government programs. Prior to NerdWallet, she wrote about home remodeling, decor and maintenance for This Old House.