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Mortgage interest rates eased today on promising news: Iran is reviewing a U.S. peace deal which could end the war.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 6.4% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is 10 basis points lower than yesterday but one basis point higher than a week ago. A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

Events in the Iran war have been a key driver for mortgage rates since its onset. Until a peace agreement is signed and lasting, we’ll probably see mortgage rates continue to jump around as investors react to geopolitical uncertainty. When oil prices rise, so does inflation. Inflation tends to lift bond yields and, in turn, mortgage costs.

Average mortgage rates, last 30 days

🤓 From the Nerds: Kate on Rates

📈 What influences mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news … you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.

The next major data drop that the Nerds are looking toward is the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), which the Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to release on May 28. This contains the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, and will likely sway mortgage rates.

The further inflation rises above the Fed’s target of 2%, the harder it will be for incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh to push for a rate cut. If inflation grows too high, we might even be looking at the possibility of rate hikes in the fall.

Mortgage rates have already been elevated following the release of April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) on May 12. The report showed that inflation spiked to its highest level in nearly three years last month, reaching 3.8%. This indicates that the effects of the Iran war have really begun to ripple across the economy; comparatively, inflation rose just 3.3% in March.

Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).

With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.9% or higher.

Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.

If you’re looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet’s refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.

🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?

There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.

If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.

NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.

🔒 Should I lock my rate?

If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.

Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.

🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.

🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?

The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won’t match every buyer’s circumstances.

In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:

Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.

👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?

Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.

About the author

Abby Badach Doyle has been writing about homeownership and mortgages for NerdWallet since 2022. Her work has been featured in outlets including The Associated Press, The Washington Post and The Seattle Times. From interactive tools to practical advice, Abby is passionate about making the homebuying journey less stressful — especially for first-time buyers.

As a reporter, she is interested in writing about innovative housing solutions (like co-living) and personal stories about how homeownership builds community and a sense of belonging.

Abby is also a musician, songwriter and producer who knows the challenge of balancing creative fulfillment with financial stability. In 2024, she produced a special episode of NerdWallet’s “Smart Money” podcast on how to navigate income swings in a creative career.

Abby is based in Pittsburgh, a city defined by working-class grit and neighborly spirit. When she’s not writing about personal finance, she’s at her urban homestead: playing fiddle, raising chickens and preserving the bounty from her garden.

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