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Mortgage interest rates crossed the 6.5% threshold again today. July’s rates have been elevated beyond what we saw in June, trending above last month’s average (6.34%) for 16 days straight.
The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.51% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is two basis points higher than yesterday but two basis points lower than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
While the economy never sleeps, markets are closed on the weekends. The rates you see Friday are unlikely to change much (if at all) until Monday.
Average mortgage rates, last 30 days
🤓 Kate on Rates: July 16, 2026
📈 What influences mortgage rates?
There aren’t any more major economic reports scheduled to drop in the coming days, and the main thing that Nerds are watching is news about the war in Iran.
Crude oil prices have risen 9% over the past five days, as renewed fighting in the region threatens to push inflation up again.
When oil prices go up, it becomes more expensive to produce and ship products, which can drive inflation. When mortgage lenders suspect that the value of the dollar is going to weaken, they protect their investments by raising mortgage rates.
Mortgage rates hit their highest point since May on Wednesday, after the U.S. resumed its blockade of Iranian ports the day before.
Even with these new inflation concerns, futures traders don’t expect the Fed to raise the federal funds rate (which also typically drives up mortgage rates) at its July meeting. However, odds of a rate hike are currently over 50% for September, according to CME FedWatch.
Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).
With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 7.01% or higher.
🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?
There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.
🔒 Should I lock my rate?
Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.
🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.
🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?
In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:
Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.
👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?
Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.
About the author
Taylor Getler is a home and mortgages writer for NerdWallet. Her work has been featured in outlets such as MarketWatch, Yahoo Finance, MSN and Nasdaq. Taylor is enthusiastic about financial literacy and helping consumers make smart, informed choices with their money.
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