Is the economy slowing to a recession or soft landing?

US GDP (gross domestic product) for 2024’s second quarter was revised for a second time, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis raising the print from 2.8% to 3%. While the data may be a tailwind for the Federal Reserve, does the data signal headwinds for the other segments of the economy?
Citi senior global economist Robert Sockin joins Morning Brief to give insight into the US economy’s growth.
“One thing that you see in these data, and you’ve seen that continue into the third quarter, is the consumer still looks to be holding up pretty well. You saw solid consumer spending in the first half, and we’ve had two strong months of retail sales in recent months,” Sockin says. “And so right now, you’re getting wobbles in the labor market. That’s the biggest concern, but so far, the consumer does not seem to be rolling over.”
Taking into consideration the wide array of economic data, Sockin finds economic risks to have “shifted more to the downside. But to me, the data still feel more like a soft landing. You’re still seeing decent consumer confidence, that picked up in recent data, decent consumer spending… There’s some question about how much of the labor market is loosening, but so far you’re not really getting those layoffs.”
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