In a new note, Piper Sandler said that Hurricane Milton could significantly change the insurance market. Piper Sandler managing director Paul Newsome joins Market Domination Overtime to lay out the case and discuss how the market is particularly changing in Florida. Newsome expects a lot of uncertainty for the industry after the hurricane hits, saying, “We don’t know what the losses will be. They could be the biggest we’ve ever seen. Theoretically, that could have wide-ranging changing effects on the industry for pricing terms and conditions, how the things are regulated.” While insurance stocks were under pressure as the storm barreled toward Florida, he explains, “They’re already starting to recover a little bit because I think the peak here was probably yesterday, and the industry is designed to handle a large event and spread the losses globally.” He adds that the stocks will likely bounce back a week or two after the storm when there is more clarity about the state of the damage. Newsome covers Heritage Insurance (HRTG) and Universal Insurance (UVE), both of which have large positions in Florida. He tells Yahoo Finance, “They rely heavily on reinsurance. They buy an enormous amount — something like 30+% of your premium in Florida will go to reinsurance costs. They’ll have a limit loss, most likely meaning that the full deduction on their reinsurance and then, with our fingers crossed, hopefully the damage is not that bad and it goes to the top. And that’s essentially the limit for the losses that they will take. And it’ll all get pushed out to the reinsurers on a global basis.” He notes that Florida is becoming an increasingly expensive place to live as the frequency of storms combined with other factors have been driving up insurance rates. Many large insurers have even decided to stop covering the state. “I don’t think the big insurers are coming back anytime soon,” Newsome says, adding that the insurers left behind will be heavily reliant on the reinsurance market. “This is ultimately a cost-plus industry. And so as the storms continue to hit and become increasingly costly, you’re just going to have increased costs that get pressed down to the consumer. There’s really nothing you can do about that other than try to make some structural changes to reduce litigation and make the market more efficient, but it’s just always going to be a costly state to buy home insurance. And if you think that you’re going to see more and more of these storms, that unfortunately just means you’re going to pay more in costs over time,” he concludes.
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