Gold broke out of a nine-week range and Kenny Polcari thinks the move is fear rather than fundamentals. Adam Shapiro, managing editor at AInvest, would still consider buying it, around the 15% Ray Dalio floated, on one condition: decide now when you are getting out. His trigger is the midterms.
Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, argues the tailwind that carried stocks for fifteen years has reversed, and warns that fifteen years of buying the dip has made the habit more dangerous rather than safer. They also dig into the bond market, and where the danger zone starts on the 10-year.
Timestamps
00:00 The bond market is running this market, not the Fed
00:40 Why stock traders cannot ignore the flows
01:11 Is the Treasury working against its own Fed nominee
01:45 The Bay of Fundy tides, and what a Treasury cannot fight
02:50 Shapiro on a weaker dollar and the inflation nobody has priced
03:28 Why Bessent cannot control the long end
04:17 The Soros comparison, and what actually breaks a central bank
04:58 Tariffed lumber against the promise of cheaper housing
05:09 A trillion a year in interest crowds out everything else
06:22 The tailwind that carried stocks for fifteen years just flipped
07:10 A slow motion train wreck we are already in
07:47 The refinancing window Yellen never used
08:47 AI capex is now competing with the government for money
09:30 Where the danger zone starts on the 10-year
10:21 Why the bond market may force the recession the Fed will not
10:39 Volcker, 1982, and what a real reset looked like
12:45 Ray Dalio says sell everything: Shapiro on why that is noise
14:09 Buying the dip worked for 15 years. Sosnick on why that is the danger
15:09 Gold broke out of a nine-week range, and why Polcari calls it a fear trade
15:25 Shapiro would buy it at 15%, with one condition
15:42 Set your exit before you buy, and why the trigger is the midterms
16:14 What a midterm sweep would actually do
16:51 The entitlement problem nobody will touch
19:33 The wealth tax, and why the math does not work
21:46 2032, and 70 cents on the dollar
23:04 Simpson-Bowles, and the bipartisan effort that died in committee
#TraderTalk #KennyPolcari #YahooFinance #BondMarket #Investing #Markets
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