Gina Martin Adams, chief market strategist at HB Wealth, points out that every single hyperscaler has been through a bear market over the past year, and nobody talks about it because the index kept rising. She also thinks the danger zone for stocks has moved higher, from 5% on the 10-year toward five and a half.
Amy Wu Silverman, head of derivatives strategy at RBC Capital Markets, tells Kenny Polcari why volatility looks calm when it is not: the rotation cancels itself out. Her worry is the day correlation picks up, and almost nobody is hedged for it.
Timestamps
0:00 Near new highs, with nerves underneath
0:11 The bull is intact. The bond market is not
0:50 The bond market is doing the Fed’s job again
1:28 Why Martin Adams thinks the danger zone moved higher
2:17 Five and a half, maybe six, and the 1990s comparison
2:43 A generation that has only ever known zero rates
3:23 Two habits this generation always comes back to
3:55 Rotation, not liquidation, and where the money went
4:40 The paddling duck: why VIX looks smooth
6:21 Nobody is hedging, and protection is inexpensive
8:10 The stock-bond correlation broke in May
9:00 Why the correlation is the real signal, not the yield
11:04 Every hyperscaler has had a bear market
11:49 The divorce from the Mag 7
13:17 The surge protector plugged into itself
14:19 One shortfall subjects the entire trade
15:20 Half a turn of leverage, against the railroads’ three
16:45 Nvidia raising prices to the hyperscalers
17:27 Is the Treasury making the Fed’s job harder
18:05 Jackson Hole, and why they both expect a dodge
#TraderTalk #KennyPolcari #YahooFinance #AIstocks #Volatility #Mag7
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