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FIRING JEROME POWELL:
The Federal Reserve made it clear that they’re holding off from lowering interest rates because of the inflationary impacts that Tariffs might have on our economy. Since their goal is to maintain stability, they want to move slower, take their time, and only cut rates once they know that prices are under control.
However, Trump said: This is why he went on record to say that: “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough! With these costs trending down so nicely, there can almost be no inflation, but there can be a slowing of the economy, unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, now!” He also said that – “He knows more than Jerome Powell about interest rates…so, they should be lowered.”
Jerome Powell said that “We’re not removable, except for cause – what we do is strictly without consideration of political or any extraneous factors,” although there’s precedent that Trump is allowed to remove independent board members, as ruled by The Supreme Court.
TARIFF TALKS:
The White House says that “China Tariffs will come down substantially” and that they’re “actively in talks” – but China went on record to say: “If the U.S. wants to talk, it should show its sincerity and be prepared to correct its wrong practices and cancel the unilateral tariffs.” As of now, talks are expected to take place in the next few days – although, be prepared for this to take quite some time.
RECESSION FEARS:
According to CNN, market fear is still near an all-time high, with 66% of adults saying that they’re “pessimistic or afraid of the economy – and 69% say that they consider an economic recession to be at least somewhat likely in the next year.”
The CEO of BlackRock said that “Many business leaders fear the us economy is already in a recession,” and – if conditions don’t change, it could take another month until we start seeing empty shelves. Critics of this say that – empty shelves are ‘overly dramatic,’ because many companies have pre-ordered in bulk to weather a storm and that recession fears are simply going to be a ‘detox-period’ for the economy.
THE STOCK MARKET:
Stock Prices have mostly recovered since the beginning of April, triggering a term called – “The Breadth Thrust Indicator.” This analyzes sudden market movements to identity the beginning of a new bull market – since 1945, this indicator has been correct all 14 out of 14 times, with average gains of 24.6% over the following 11-months.
As of last week, The Bread Thrust Indicator was confirmed – this means, if history is any indication, we might be at the start of a brand new bull market, with prices going higher – year over year – 100% of the time.
However, keep in mind: even though this has been accurate throughout the last 80 years, every situation – and every market – is going to be different, and we’re dealing with a unique set of circumstances that isn’t the same as where it was a few decades ago. That’s not to say this isn’t the start of a bull market – but it is a word to be cautious about setting an unrealistic expectations.
HOUSING PRICES:
Home prices posted a 3.9% annual increase in February, although these gains are slowing down. On a month-over-month basis, national home prices have increased just 0.1% – signaling that, things may finally be starting to normalize.
Zillow reported that they think median home prices might actually turn negative this year, falling 1.9% for the first time since the Great Financial Crisis: “The combination of rising available listings and elevated mortgage rates is signaling potential price drops by years end – buyers are gaining more options and time to decide, and sellers are cutting prices to attract bids.”
Obviously, a 1.9% drop isn’t groundbreaking – but it would give indication that there is some room to negotiate, depending on the market.
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