Ahead of big banks like JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Bank of New York Mellon (BNY), kicking off the third quarter earnings season, Stephen Biggar, Argus Research director of financial services research, joins Morning Brief Hosts Seana Smith and Brad Smith to take a look at the financials sector and what investors can expect. Biggar says the Federal Reserve rate easing cycle benefits the banking sector alongside the rest of the market. “As bank analysts, we typically root for higher interest rates because that’s better for net interest margins. But there has been a point where these high rates have kind of worn out their welcome.” “Lower rates here will help stimulate some of the loan growth, which has been very, very weak. That will help take some of the pressure off deposit costs, which have also been elevated for banks. And then also [it] kind of helps with increasing the odds of a soft landing, and that will help with loss provision. So you know that slower economy has produced higher unemployment here to the extent we can take some of that pressure off, we get lower loss provision. So really a triple boom for the for the lending business, if lower rates pan out.” Following last week’s better-than-expected September jobs report, the market may be wary that the Fed may put a pause on cutting rates. Biggar says, “We have been counting on lower rates and, of course, that is a double-edged sword and… hurts on the net interest margin front. But, you know, to the extent that the banks are pretty well hedged here, [assuming] the economy doesn’t fall off a cliff.” He adds, “Banks are pretty well hedged. And they’ll do okay. Loan growth has not turned negative loss provisions have not. You know increased to the point that it’s really hurting profitability at this stage. And then you’ve got the capital markets side which is showing some signs of rebound. So I think you know, all told, the next six months [are] probably better than the last six for banks.” Biggar names JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley (MS) as top stock picks in the banking sector going into earnings season.
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