The 30-year fixed crossed 7% this week for the first time in 20 months. New home sales still jumped to an eight-month high in August. Logan Mohtashami explains why both are true at once: builders can buy mortgage rates down toward 6% and the resale market cannot. He also argues the housing shortage is over. Inventory is up, monthly supply is up, and wages have finally outpaced home price growth. What he won’t give is a date. While inflation runs above target and the labor market holds, he puts the range at 6.5% to 7.5% and says housing sits there until something breaks.
Featuring
Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst, HousingWire
Brooke DiPalma, Senior Reporter, Yahoo Finance
Timestamps
0:00 Rates near 6% grow demand, then they go back above 7%
0:29 Builders are selling at 2019 levels off a sub-6% market
1:04 New home sales have gone nowhere for a decade
2:11 The million home sales America is missing every year
2:27 “There’s no more shortage anymore”
3:39 Why a mortgage rate below 5.75% has almost no precedent
4:25 “This is where we’re gonna be until something breaks”
4:39 What it does to homebuilder stocks
5:20 The one metric to watch, and why it isn’t the mortgage rate
#Housing #MortgageRates #RealEstate #Homebuilders #YahooFinance
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