rewrite this title Weekly Mortgage Rates Rise Under Gloomy Economic Clouds – NerdWallet

Mortgage rates are a lot like spring weather, changing just frequently enough to keep you checking the forecast. At least for now, rate trends feel less like a thunderstorm and more like a stubborn spring drizzle.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 17 basis points to 6.42% APR in the week ending May 21, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. (A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.) We calculate our weekly average using daily APRs recorded over the past five business days.

No one really knows when the skies will clear, including incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who is scheduled to be sworn in tomorrow. He’ll inherit the unenviable task of balancing stubborn inflation against a cooling job market.

Yesterday, we got the tea — er, meeting minutes — from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting on April 28-29. We already know the conclusion: The central bankers voted to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, in a widely expected move.

But the newly released notes suggest policymakers are becoming more concerned that inflation may linger longer than expected. Higher oil prices tied to the war in Iran were a major reason why.

Fed officials warned that rising energy and transportation costs could continue working their way into consumer prices in the months ahead, even if the war in Iran ends. And that’s before the central bankers saw the latest Consumer Price Index, which dropped two weeks after the Fed meeting, showing that annual inflation heated up to its highest rate since May 2023.

“This was a tough week for bonds on multiple levels,” explains Kate Wood, lending expert at NerdWallet, noting inflation data as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions with China and Iran. “U.S. debt doesn’t carry the clout it once did. Traders are demanding higher yields, and mortgage rates generally rise along with yields.”

In other words: Homebuyers waiting for a perfectly sunny mortgage rate forecast may be waiting a while.

🤓 From the Nerds: Kate on Rates

Some good news might be on the horizon: Iran says it’s reviewing a U.S. peace proposal to end the conflict. For would-be homebuyers, does that mean it’s worth holding out to see if lower mortgage rates will follow?

About the author

Abby Badach Doyle has been writing about homeownership and mortgages for NerdWallet since 2022. Her work has been featured in outlets including The Associated Press, The Washington Post and The Seattle Times. From interactive tools to practical advice, Abby is passionate about making the homebuying journey less stressful — especially for first-time buyers.

As a reporter, she is interested in writing about innovative housing solutions (like co-living) and personal stories about how homeownership builds community and a sense of belonging.

Abby is also a musician, songwriter and producer who knows the challenge of balancing creative fulfillment with financial stability. In 2024, she produced a special episode of NerdWallet’s “Smart Money” podcast on how to navigate income swings in a creative career.

Abby is based in Pittsburgh, a city defined by working-class grit and neighborly spirit. When she’s not writing about personal finance, she’s at her urban homestead: playing fiddle, raising chickens and preserving the bounty from her garden.