Toncoin’s (TON) value has been on a downtrend since the arrest of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov on August 24. Currently trading at $5.45, the token’s price has dropped by 20%.
Despite this decline, an analyst suggests that the Telegram-based asset could outperform the broader market in September.
In an exclusive interview with BeinCrypto, Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, noted that TON’s price drop since Durov’s arrest does not represent a “severe crash”. According to Lee, the double-digit decline mirrors the performance of Bitcoin (BTC), which has recently struggled to surpass the $60,000 mark.
Lee also pointed out that despite the recent struggle, TON has outperformed Ethereum (ETH). As of press time, ETH is trading at $2,523, reflecting a 24% drop over the past month amid its ongoing downtrend.
“TON has experienced a decline recently due to negative news, but we’ve noticed that even with major bad news, such as the arrest of Telegram’s founder, TON’s price did not experience a severe crash and instead showed considerable resilience and recovery. Over the past 30 days, TON’s decline has been roughly in line with BTC’s, significantly outperforming ETH,” Lee said.
Lee observed that despite the negative press surrounding Pavel Durov’s arrest, TON’s weighted sentiment has remained bullish. He attributed this resilience to the unity among TON ecosystem builders, projects, and supporters, which has resulted in a noticeable absence of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) on social media.
According to him, if this trend continues, TON is positioned to slightly outperform the general cryptocurrency market in September.
“If there are no further negative developments in the TON ecosystem, TON’s performance in September is likely to follow or slightly outperform the broader market, mainly depending on macroeconomic factors. If overall market sentiment improves in September,” Lee added.
Regarding the token’s price targets, Lee stated it may retest the $6.5 or $7 price levels. However, TON may face consolidation and “fluctuate within the $5 to $6 range” if the “overall market environment remains unchanged.”
An assessment of TON’s price performance on a one-day chart indicates a potential for further decline in the short term. Currently, the altcoin trades well below the Leading Span A and Leading Span B, which form its Ichimoku Cloud indicator.
This indicator helps identify trends, support and resistance levels, and potential market reversals. Trading below the cloud suggests that TON is in a downtrend, with the cloud acting as a resistance level, indicating that sellers currently dominate the market.
Toncoin Price Analysis. Source: TradingView
Additionally, TON’s declining Relative Strength Index (RSI) further confirms the selling pressure, with the RSI currently below the 50-neutral line at 38.22. This suggests that selling activity is outweighing buying pressure among market participants.
If the selling pressure continues, TON’s price could drop to $4.74, which would invalidate Lee’s bullish projection of $6.5 to $7.
Toncoin Price Analysis. Source: TradingView
However, if the market trend shifts toward accumulation, with traders starting to buy more TON, its price could rise to $5.57 and potentially reach $6, aligning with Lee’s predictions.
In conclusion, despite the recent challenges faced by TON following Pavel Durov’s arrest, the outlook for the token remains positive. With resilience shown in the face of adversity and potential for outperformance in the coming month, TON could be a lucrative investment opportunity for those looking to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency market.
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