Wednesday morning reports state that President-elect Donald Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to justify universal tariffs. This would enable Trump to use the “International Economic Emergency Powers Act,” which grants him the power to manage imports.
Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research, joins Seana Smith and Brad Smith on Morning Brief to discuss the potential impacts of President-elect Trump’s proposed tariffs.
Roth says the proposed tariffs’ impact on economic growth will depend on what they actually look like. “If we do get … anything close to what Trump has proposed, that would be a stagflationary impact on the economy, no question,” she explains. On the other hand, if the tariffs are more targeted, the effects may be less drastic.
Although economic data does not suggest an economic emergency, Roth notes that the US’s reliance on other countries for key strategic goods may be a real concern.
“If we’re actually able to raise tariffs and boost production, that would make the US a much stronger economy,” she explains. “So yes, it’s not necessarily a national emergency in the near term, but when we’re thinking strategically, this is important for the economy to be a lot more independent.”
Roth also shares her thoughts on future rate cuts and the December payrolls report to be released this Friday. She anticipates a “soft” but still healthy print of around 140,000 jobs, which could influence the Fed’s timeline for rate cuts.
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