US equities (^GSPC, ^DJI, ^IXIC) are rising Thursday morning after economic data in the form of US jobless claims came out lower than expected (230,000 reported vs. 240,000 expected), inspiring some new confidence in Wall Street’s outlook on the economy.
As more data pours in, is there enough to cement an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve and what could that first cut look like for the economy?
Stifel chief economist and managing director Lindsey Piegza joins Morning Brief to give insight into the current labor market trends and the mindset behind a Fed decision to cut.
Piegza comments that for the Fed to cut rates: “It’s going to come down to whether or not the Fed gets that needed confidence to justify a rate reduction near term. But right now, looking at that July statement, it’s clear the Fed is not at that point. The Fed does not have confidence that we are on a sustainable disinflationary trend.”
She continues to state “the onus is on the data to convince policymakers not to cut rates.”
“So meaning if we did see a minimal one tenth of a percentage point decline in some of these key price metrics, I think that may be enough to justify the Fed to move in September at a very tempered 25 basis point clip,” Piegza.
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