Own oil, gold and silver. And keep some dry powder.
Chris Kampitsis, managing partner at Barnum Financial Group, thinks investors need commodities exposure as a hedge right now, and names oil, gold and silver. He also wants a little dry powder, because six percent on the 10-year is where he thinks equities stop looking appetizing, and insurers are already publishing 5.9% on seven-year guaranteed contracts.
Ben Emons, chief investment officer at FedWatch Advisors, tells Kenny Polcari why the long end is climbing, and it is not the deficit: the Fed itself points to AI borrowing hedged with Treasuries. Plus what a blue sweep would do to gold, and whether Nvidia can beat and still fall.
Timestamps
0:00 Bessent doubled down on the buyback. Can he move the long end
0:51 The war chest is an operating account, and there is no free lunch
1:55 The long end is doing the Fed’s work while fed funds sit still
3:35 The Fed’s own answer: AI borrowing, not inflation or the deficit
4:00 Emons on a 10-year well over 5%, and why that is not bearish
4:48 Growing faster than the last decade, and growing out of debt
5:28 Why take equity risk when you can get five and a quarter
5:43 Six on the 10-year is where equities stop looking appetizing
6:22 Insurers are publishing 5.9% on seven-year guaranteed contracts
7:10 The 1999 parallel, and what actually broke that market
8:51 What the midterms do to markets, and the blue sweep risk
9:39 Echoes of 2018: plus 10 in September, negative for the year
10:21 An 8 to 10% pullback, and why September is the worst month
11:19 An eight month conflict with no end in sight
14:07 Oil from 67 to 80 means next month’s inflation prints turn
14:45 Tariffs back on, and the first Smoot-Hawley comparison in decades
15:03 The Warsh Fed at Jackson Hole, and why he will say nothing
17:34 Kampitsis on a 75% chance of a hike, and three as the new two
18:25 Why he wants commodities as a hedge right now
18:59 Gold broke a nine-week range, and what a blue sweep does to it
21:05 Not just inflation: the dollar confidence story behind gold
21:47 Cash is a decision, and a volatility anchor
22:38 Will Nvidia beat and still fall
#TraderTalk #KennyPolcari #YahooFinance #Commodities #Gold #BondMarket
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