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Bitcoin price slid to fresh six-month lows on Friday, breaking decisively below the psychological $100,000 mark and intensifying a sell-off that has wiped out nearly a quarter of its value in just over a month.
By midday, the bitcoin price was trading between $94,000 and $97,000, its weakest level since early May and a steep fall from October’s $126,296 all-time high, according to Bitcoin Magazine Pro data.
At the time of writing, the bitcoin price is at $94,850 but it bounced off of levels at $94,000.
The drop caps off a chaotic week across global markets, where risk assets, from tech giants to crypto stocks, have tumbled amid collapsing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.
Just two weeks ago, traders were pricing in a near-certain 97% chance of easing. Today, that probability has plunged to roughly 50%, triggering deleveraging across equities and digital assets alike.
Why is the Bitcoin price dropping?
The macro pressures are only part of the story. The Bitcoin price is facing internal market dynamics that have amplified the decline. According to new data from CryptoQuant, long-term holders have sold an estimated 815,000 BTC in the past 30 days— the largest such exodus since early 2024.
Spot demand has weakened at the worst possible moment, and U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded hundreds of millions in daily outflows, draining liquidity while fueling downside momentum.
The turmoil extends beyond crypto. Risk-sensitive equities—including Nvidia, Tesla, Palantir, Coinbase, and Bitcoin miners—were hammered in this week’s sessions as investors fled speculative assets.
Rising concerns over an AI bubble, combined with uncertainty surrounding delayed U.S. economic data following the 43-day government shutdown, have pushed the VIX to its highest reading since mid-October.
Institutional buying has fallen below the daily supply issued by miners, adding steady sell pressure at a time when liquidity is thinning.
Bitcoin price is teetering at tricky levels
Bitcoin price is now hovering near its closely watched 365-day moving average around the $100,000, a level analysts say could determine whether the current pullback turns into a sharper correction, according to Bitcoin Magazine Pro.
Researchers at Bitfinex noted to Bitcoin Magazine that the drawdown from October’s peak is tracking closely with typical mid-cycle retracements, matching the roughly 22% pullbacks seen throughout the 2023–2025 bull market.
Despite the slide below a bitcoin price of $100,000, they estimate that about 72% of all circulating bitcoin remains in profit — an indication that long-term holders are still sitting on gains even as sentiment weakens.
Other analysts see signs that the market may be nearing a floor. JPMorgan estimates bitcoin’s current production cost — driven higher by rising network difficulty — sits around $94,000, a level that has historically acted as a strong downside anchor.
With the price now approaching that threshold, the bank argues that bitcoin’s price-to-cost ratio is back near historical lows and maintains a bullish 6–12 month outlook targeting roughly $170,000.
Still, the forces shaping this correction are far larger than retail traders. Whales, institutions, and leveraged market structures now dictate most major moves. Single transfers from wallets holding thousands of BTC can shift sentiment across exchanges.
But bitcoin’s recent wave of whale selling isn’t a sign of panic but typical late-cycle behavior, according to Glassnode.
Glassnode says long-term holders are steadily realizing profits, with monthly spending rising from 12,000 BTC per day in July to about 26,000 — consistent with normal bull-market distribution rather than an “OG whale exodus.”
The broader backdrop isn’t helping. The U.S. government has reopened after a record 43-day shutdown, the longest in American history, following President Trump’s late-Wednesday approval of a temporary funding measure.
Under the bill, federal agencies are funded only through Jan. 30, meaning uncertainty will continue to hang over markets even as operations slowly resume.
At press time, bitcoin price is trading at $95,670, hovering near production-cost levels and testing key technical support.
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