rewrite this title Bitcoin Seasonality: Why Summer 2025 Will Catch Everyone Off Guard

A growing number of Bitcoin and crypto market participants have fallen victim to a dangerous assumption: that summer in the crypto markets is synonymous with stagnation. However, crypto analyst Cristian Chifoi warns that this summer may follow a drastically different script. In a video analysis released on July 1, Chifoi lays out a compelling case that 2025 fits a historical pattern that has previously delivered some of Bitcoin’s strongest summer performances.

Summer 2025 Could Flip Bitcoin’s Script

Chifoi’s thesis is based on a concept he has long explored: Bitcoin seasonality—a recurring, cyclical behavior in Bitcoin’s price action across the calendar year, especially in relation to the four-year halving cycles. According to Chifoi, there is an identifiable seasonal window from mid-January to mid-March where Bitcoin historically shows explosive movement in one direction, only to reverse course in the subsequent months.

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This pattern has held across multiple years and cycles. In 2021, for example, Bitcoin rallied from $28,000 to $60,000 between January and March before collapsing back to $28,000 by summer. The opposite occurred in 2023, when Bitcoin dumped in Q1 and reversed upwards during summer.

“From January 22nd to March 11th [2024], we had a 2x on Bitcoin,” Chifoi noted. “And if the price moves in one direction in this window, it tends to do the exact opposite after that. That’s the seasonality reversal.” Chifoi highlighted this tendency across previous cycles as well, identifying the same trend flip in 2022, 2023, and most notably in 2021.

Critically, Chifoi warns that while most traders are anchored to the recent past—recalling three consecutive “boring” summers—this year is historically aligned with a different kind of setup. “Nobody is prepared for this summer,” he said. “Because people only look at the past three years. But those were not the years to look at.”

Instead, Chifoi compares 2025 to three historical analogues: 2013, 2017, and 2021—all years that followed a halving and saw significant summer rallies. In each of those years, after early-year volatility or corrections, Bitcoin posted dramatic gains from mid-July into early September. In 2017, Bitcoin rallied 160% in that timeframe. In 2021, the move was 77%.

“The common factor in those years? They were one year after a halving, with a post-March reversal in trend,” Chifoi explained. “Now we are in the same window again. And people are not looking at it.”

First Crash, Then Surge?

The analyst also emphasized that current price action fits his broader fractal thesis. After Bitcoin’s local top at $109K earlier this year and the rejection that followed, the market appears to be chopping sideways—something he predicted back in late 2024. He expects this phase to continue into July 20, potentially ending with a sudden flush to the downside. But this, he argues, would be the setup for the next leg higher.

“Don’t be surprised if the drop comes with a lot of bad news,” he said. “Every time there’s a dump before a rally, the media has a narrative ready. That doesn’t mean it’s real. It just means the market is doing what it always does—shake out the majority.”

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Chifoi also addressed broader market confluences, notably pointing out similar behavior in the S&P 500, where a corrective move in early July appears to align with his crypto timing model. He expects a pullback in both markets to precede the next upward thrust, targeting a Fibonacci resistance zone that historically acts as a pause point during price discovery.

Despite his bullishness, Chifoi made it clear he’s not buying Bitcoin right now. “I already bought below $20K,” he said. “At this point, I’m watching altcoin charts, looking for pullbacks to accumulate.”

He expressed frustration at the prevailing narratives circulating among large X accounts, particularly those pushing for rotating altcoins into Bitcoin under the assumption that dominance will rise indefinitely. “This is very stupid,” he said bluntly. “The market is behaving exactly as it should—for the fewest number of people to make money.”

In closing, Chifoi cautioned that those who insist on saying this time is different will likely find themselves on the wrong side of the trade. “Only if this time is different will this not play out. But if you base your strategy on those words, I can guarantee you 99% of the time, you won’t make money.”

As the July 20 pivot approaches, Chifoi’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s next move may catch a complacent market off guard. Whether or not history rhymes once more, the veteran analyst has made his stance clear: this is not a summer to sleep through.

At press time, BTC traded at $106,880.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com