rewrite this title 10 Platforms Powering Crypto Event Prediction Markets In 2026

by
Alisa Davidson

Published: January 01, 2026 at 8:00 am Updated: December 19, 2025 at 8:55 am

by Ana

Edited and fact-checked:
January 01, 2026 at 8:00 am

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Prediction markets occupy an unusual but increasingly important niche in crypto. They sit somewhere between derivatives, information markets, and social consensus mechanisms. Unlike perpetuals or options, prediction markets are discrete: an outcome happens or it doesn’t. 

That binary structure makes them well suited to events crypto traders already obsess over — ETF approvals, protocol upgrades, governance votes, price thresholds by a given date, regulatory actions, or even existential questions like whether a chain will halt or fork.

What makes crypto-native prediction platforms interesting is not just the ability to “bet,” but the way probabilities are surfaced. Prices in these markets act as continuously updating forecasts, shaped by participants who are incentivized to be right rather than loud. 

For traders, DAOs, and researchers, these platforms offer a different signal layer — one that reflects conviction-weighted belief rather than narrative momentum.

Below are real prediction platforms where users can take positions on crypto-related events, each with a distinct market design and use case.

Polymarket — Liquidity-Driven Crypto Event Forecasting

Polymarket has become the default venue for crypto-related event speculation. Built around USDC settlement and automated market makers, it allows users to trade outcome shares that resolve to $1 or $0 depending on the result. Markets range from straightforward price targets (“Will BTC hit $100k by year-end?”) to more structural events like ETF approvals, chain launches, or regulatory actions.

What sets Polymarket apart is liquidity concentration. Because attention coalesces around a small number of high-profile markets, prices often react faster than social consensus elsewhere. Advanced users treat Polymarket probabilities as a real-time sentiment and information aggregation tool — not because they’re always correct, but because they compress dispersed beliefs into a single signal.

Best for: Traders looking to express directional views on discrete crypto events.

Augur — Fully Decentralized, Oracle-Resolved Markets

Augur is among the very first decentralized prediction market protocols and it operates completely on smart contracts and a decentralized oracle system to come up with the results without any central authority. Users are allowed to make markets around almost any event related to cryptocurrency, such as milestones, the level of prices at certain points in time, etc.

Full decentralization comes along with some drawbacks. Liquidity is not that high, user-experience is not so good, and dispute resolution might take a while. However, for the people who value censorship resistance and composability the most, Augur is still a clear manifestation of what on-chain prediction markets were initially intended to be.

Best for: Users who value decentralization over convenience and speed.

Gnosis — Conditional Tokens as Prediction Infrastructure

Rather than a single consumer platform, Gnosis provides the infrastructure underpinning many prediction markets. Its Conditional Tokens Framework allows outcomes to be represented as ERC-20 tokens that can be traded, combined, or embedded into other DeFi protocols.

This design is powerful for complex crypto events. For example, conditional tokens can represent multi-outcome governance votes or branching protocol upgrades. Advanced users and DAOs often use Gnosis-based markets internally to forecast decisions or stress-test assumptions.

Best for: Developers, DAOs, and advanced users building custom prediction markets.

Kalshi — Regulated Event Trading with Crypto Exposure

Kalshi operates very differently from DeFi-native platforms. It is a CFTC-regulated event trading venue that allows users to trade contracts on real-world outcomes, including crypto-adjacent events like ETF approvals, regulatory rulings, or macroeconomic decisions that materially impact crypto markets.

While Kalshi does not allow on-chain settlement or permissionless market creation, its regulatory clarity attracts participants who wouldn’t touch DeFi-based betting platforms. For advanced traders, Kalshi can function as a hedge or alternative expression of crypto exposure through compliant channels.

Best for: Traders who want event exposure within a regulated framework.

Hedgehog Markets — DeFi-Native AMM Prediction Markets

Hedgehog Markets is an Ethereum-based prediction market protocol using automated market makers to price outcomes. Unlike order-book-based systems, liquidity is pooled, which makes it easier to create markets without relying on immediate counterparties.

This AMM structure works well for long-tail crypto events that may not attract heavy volume immediately. However, pricing efficiency depends heavily on liquidity depth, making early prices more reflective of initial beliefs than collective intelligence.

Best for: DeFi-native users comfortable with AMM-based pricing dynamics.

Zeitgeist — Prediction Markets on Polkadot

Zeitgeist is a Substrate-based prediction market protocol within the Polkadot ecosystem. It supports flexible market creation, multiple dispute mechanisms, and governance-controlled resolution paths.

Zeitgeist is particularly interesting for ecosystem-specific forecasting — parachain launches, governance outcomes, or network-level changes within Polkadot and adjacent chains. Its design emphasizes modularity and governance participation rather than pure speculation.

Best for: Polkadot ecosystem participants and governance-focused users.

Omen — Gnosis-Powered Frontend for Event Markets

Omen is a frontend built on Gnosis’ Conditional Tokens framework. It provides a more user-friendly interface for interacting with decentralized prediction markets without abstracting away their mechanics entirely.

Omen is commonly used for DAO governance forecasting and crypto milestone events. Because markets are fully on-chain, transparency is high — users can inspect liquidity, positions, and resolution logic directly. Liquidity varies widely by market, making selectivity important.

Best for: DAO participants and on-chain governance observers.

PredictIt — Academic-Style Event Markets with Crypto Spillover

PredictIt is not crypto-native, but it occasionally hosts markets related to crypto regulation, adoption, or policy outcomes. The platform is designed primarily for research and educational purposes, with capped position sizes and limited liquidity.

For advanced crypto users, PredictIt is less about profit and more about understanding how non-crypto-native participants price crypto-relevant outcomes — particularly regulatory ones.

Best for: Policy-focused users and research-driven forecasting.

Drift — Solana-Based Event & Prediction-Style Markets

Drift is better known as a derivatives protocol, but it has experimented with prediction-style markets within the Solana ecosystem. These markets benefit from low latency and cheap transactions, allowing fast repricing as information changes.

While still evolving, Drift’s approach highlights how prediction mechanics can blend with traditional trading primitives — potentially leading to hybrid products that combine event resolution with continuous trading.

Best for: Solana-native traders seeking low-friction event exposure.

Azuro — Liquidity Infrastructure for Prediction Markets

Azuro is not a consumer-facing platform, but a liquidity-layer protocol designed to power prediction markets across multiple applications. It focuses on scalable liquidity provisioning, making it easier for apps to host event betting without building market mechanics from scratch.

For advanced users, Azuro matters because infrastructure shapes outcomes. Better liquidity design leads to tighter spreads, more informative prices, and less manipulation — all crucial for crypto event forecasting.

Best for: Builders, protocol designers, and infrastructure-focused users.

Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in cryptocurrency, zero-knowledge proofs, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.

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