rewrite this title Prediction: Greece vs Italy – SoccerNews

Having both missed out on the upcoming World Cup, Greece and Italy will bring the 2025–26 international season to a close when they meet for a friendly in Crete on Sunday.

With attentions already turning toward the next UEFA Nations League campaign in September, this fixture offers both teams a chance to reset and rebuild.

Verdict: Home win

Best odds: 1/1

Bookmaker: BetUS

Greece

Greece enter this match under growing pressure after a disappointing World Cup qualification campaign, which saw them finish only third in their group behind Scotland, missing out even on a place in the playoffs. It means their absence from FIFA’s global showpiece now stretches to over a decade.

That outcome was particularly frustrating given the progress they had shown in earlier competitions, notably a promising Nations League campaign where they famously defeated England at Wembley and finished level on points with the Three Lions. Expectations had been raised, but recent results have brought them crashing back down.

Head coach Ivan Jovanović is now facing scrutiny, especially after a series of underwhelming friendlies. Greece followed a home defeat to Paraguay with a goalless stalemate in Hungary and were on the brink of another loss on Thursday before Giorgos Masouras struck a dramatic 95th‑minute equaliser against Sweden. Despite taking the lead through Kostas Tsimikas, they were unable to maintain control and were forced to settle for a draw.

That result means Greece have won just once in their last eight matches, highlighting a concerning lack of consistency as they approach the next phase of their international cycle. With a tough Nations League group ahead, featuring Germany, the Netherlands and Serbia, improvement will be essential.

Team News

Jovanović is likely to rely heavily on his experienced core. Greece fielded a near full‑strength side against Sweden, with Vangelis Pavlidis captaining the team in the absence of injured regular skipper Tasos Bakasetas, who remains unavailable. Few changes are expected, with Tsimikas and Christos Tzolis set to feature again from the start.

In attack, competition remains open. Tasos Douvikas, fresh from an impressive club season in which he scored 14 goals for Como, will aim to break into the starting lineup ahead of Andrews Tetteh. With limited rotation expected, Greece will hope continuity can finally translate into results after a difficult spell.

Italy

Italy arrive in Crete in the midst of another painful rebuilding phase after yet another failure to qualify for the World Cup. Despite progressing past Northern Ireland in the playoff semi‑final, the Azzurri fell short in dramatic fashion, losing to Bosnia‑Herzegovina on penalties and extending their absence from the tournament to more than a decade, with their last appearance dating back to 2014.

The fallout has led to major changes behind the scenes. Gennaro Gattuso, appointed during the qualification cycle, has already departed, and Silvio Baldini has stepped in as interim head coach. With a permanent appointment delayed until after upcoming federation elections, Baldini has been tasked with guiding a transitional, youthful squad through the end of the season.

That transition has been evident on the pitch. Italy fielded a largely inexperienced side in their recent friendly against Luxembourg, where Inter Milan forward Pio Esposito scored the winning goal on his senior debut. The result was encouraging, but the bigger story was the number of new faces involved, with as many as 15 players earning their first caps.

Availability remains a key factor for the visitors. Lorenzo Venturino has withdrawn from the squad due to injury, while rising talent Marco Palestra missed the Luxembourg match with a minor thigh problem and remains a doubt. Furthermore, with many senior players absent following a long domestic season, the squad is composed mostly of uncapped or lightly experienced individuals.

One of the few constants is captain Gianluigi Donnarumma, who earned his 82nd international cap in midweek. The 27‑year‑old goalkeeper is set to start again, providing leadership behind a defence still adjusting at this level. Alongside him, Niccolò Pisilli and Pio Esposito are among the few players with prior senior caps in an otherwise youthful squad.

This fixture offers another valuable opportunity for Italy’s emerging players to gain experience before Nations League action begins, where they will face formidable opposition in France, Belgium and Turkey.

Conclusion

While both teams come into this match after disappointing qualification campaigns, they do so in very different circumstances. Greece retain an experienced core and greater continuity, whereas Italy are clearly in transition, relying heavily on a new generation of players still finding their footing at international level.

Despite being ranked significantly below their opponents, Greece appear better equipped to handle the demands of this fixture, particularly with Italy missing the majority of their established senior players. For the hosts, this is an opportunity to restore confidence before a challenging autumn schedule.

In what is likely to be a closely contested encounter, Greece’s experience and cohesion may prove decisive, giving them the edge as they seek a morale‑boosting victory to close out a difficult campaign.

Verdict: Home win

Best odds: 1/1

Bookmaker: BetUS