rewrite this title The Numbers Game: In-form Aston Villa take aim at Ligue 1 champions PSG – Soccer News

Paris Saint-Germain wrapped up the Ligue 1 title last weekend, capping off what had become an inevitable procession with a 1-0 win over Angers.

They are unbeaten in Ligue 1 this season, with their 28-game run a club record.

PSG need to go five more matches without defeat in the French top flight, and they will surpass the record of 32, set by Nantes in 1994-95.

But now, their focus will be on the Champions League, and a quarter-final tie with in-form Aston Villa.

Unai Emery’s team are pushing for a top-four finish in the Premier League, are into the FA Cup semi-final and enjoying a sparkling European campaign.

We should be in for an enthralling match-up, then.

Here, we delve into the key facts and metrics.

What’s expected?

PSG are made the favourites to win the first leg, having come out on top in 64.2% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations.

There is a 19.3% chance of a draw, and a 16.5% probability of Villa taking a lead back to Villa Park.

PSG are also the favourites to progress from the tie as a whole, though. In fact, only Barcelona (78%) are given a greater chance of reaching the semi-finals than PSG (71%).

Barca are the only team who are given more of a chance of going all the way this season than PSG, who have a 19% likelihood of ending their wait for European glory.

Villa’s 29% chance of making the last four ranks ahead of only Borussia Dortmund (22%).

This is the first competitive meeting between PSG and Villa, with this just the second Champions League quarter-final between French and English sides across the last eight seasons (Manchester City 1-3 Lyon in a single-leg tie in 2019-20).

Villa will be the fourth different English team that PSG have faced in the Champions League this season (also Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool).

This is the joint-most opponents from one nation that a team have played against in a single European Cup/Champions League campaign, along with Leeds United in 2000-01 (four Spanish sides) and Real Madrid in 2023-24 (four German sides).

Prior to eliminating Liverpool in the last 16, PSG had exited the competition in each of their last three knockout stage meetings with English teams (v Manchester City in 2015-16 and 2020-21, and Man United in 2018-19).

Villa, on the other hand, have never won away to a French opponent in European competition (P5 D2 L3). The last two have both been defeats under Emery, losing at Lille in April 2024 (1-2) and at Monaco in January this year (0-1).

The kids are alright

Liverpool boss Arne Slot, in the wake of his side’s penalty shoot-out loss to PSG in the round of 16, suggested Luis Enrique’s team are the best in Europe.

The metrics back up Slot’s claim, too. Of teams in Europe’s top five leagues, only Barcelona (141) have scored more goals across all competitions than PSG (124) this season. In fact, PSG have registered the highest expected goals (118.61), while recording the most shots (878), shots on target (365) and the most big chances (235).

They have won possession back in the final third more times than any other team from Europe’s top five leagues (267 times in all competitions). They are also second only to Bayern for the highest average possession share (67.25%).

PSG have won 21 of their 23 games and scored 73 goals in 2025 (all competitions). They have the most wins and goals of any team from Europe’s top five leagues this calendar year.

This is a lean, mean attacking machine, and it is one built on the exuberance of youth, as well as some career-best form from Ousmane Dembele.

PSG have the fifth-youngest starting XI on average in the Champions League this season (24 years, 242 days), and the youngest of any team remaining in the tournament.

Dembele, though, is at the forefront of everything PSG do so well. He has netted seven goals in his last six Champions League games, one more than in his previous 36 appearances in the competition combined.

Six of those seven goals have been scored in away matches, however, so he could do with transitioning that form to the Parc des Princes.

The France international stands on 24 goals and two assists in all competitions in 2025. He has the most goals and total goal involvements (26) of any player from Europe’s top five leagues since the turn of the year.

Desire Doue netted PSG’s title-winning goal on Saturday. He has been involved in 18 goals in all competitions in 2025 (nine goals, nine assists). In Europe’s top five leagues, he is just the second player to accumulate at least nine goals and at least nine assists this year in all competitions, after Raphinha (10 goals, 10 assists).

Will Emery and Asensio make PSG pay?

Interesting sub-plots to this tie, are that Emery is going up against his former employers, while in-form Marco Asensio will be hoping to do the damage against his parent club, who made the decision to loan the former Real Madrid winger to Villa in the winter window.

Emery has won just two of his 10 games against his compatriot Luis Enrique (D1 L7), with both wins coming in home fixtures.

This will be the first time they have faced each other since the 2016-17 campaign, when Luis Enrique’s Barcelona came from 0-4 down in the first leg to eliminate Emery’s PSG in the Champions League last 16 (6-1 win in the second leg).

Attack could well be the best form of defence for Villa over this tie, too.

Only nine teams in Europe’s top five leagues, across all competitions, have scored more goals than Villa’s 37 in 2025. Since the turn of the year, only five of those teams have won more games in all competitions than the Villans (13).

Villa have won seven consecutive games in all competitions for the first time since a 10-game winning run between March and April 2019 (while playing in the Championship), doing so as a top-flight side for the first time since March 1981 (seven).

Marcus Rashford has hit form following his loan move from Manchester United, while in Morgan Rogers and Ollie Watkins they have other top-tier attackers.

Watkins (six goals, six assists) and Rogers (seven goals, five assists) both have 12 goal involvements in all competitions in 2025.

Only PSG (four – Dembele, Bradley Barcola, Doue and Goncalo Ramos), Real Madrid (four – Mbappe, Rodrygo, Jude Bellingham and Vinicius Junior) and Barcelona (four – Raphinha, Robert Lewandowski, Ferran Torres and Lamine Yamal) have more different players in double figures than Villa.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

PSG – Vitinha

Over half (52%) of Villa’s chances created in the Champions League this season have come from the middle third of the pitch; the highest percentage of any side. Meanwhile, Emery’s team have conceded the fewest overall chances from the middle third this term (12).

So, getting a foothold in midfield is going to be key, and in Vitinha, PSG have just the player for it.

He has completed 93% of his passes made under high-intensity pressure in the Champions League this season (544/586) – the highest completion rate of any midfielder in the competition (min. 100 attempted). The Portuguese international also leads all players for line-breaking passes in the knockout stages of the current tournament (77).

Aston Villa – Marco Asensio

Asensio will be eager to show PSG what they are missing, and possibly even prove they should keep him at the club next season (albeit, Villa may have something to say about that).

The Spain international is already on nine goal contributions for his temporary club (eight goals, one assist), and has scored three goals in two Champions League appearances for Villa (both as a substitute), after failing to score in 10 games for PSG in the competition.

If he finds the net in this game, 2024-25 would be his best return in a single campaign in the competition.