Many on Wall Street are anticipating the Federal Reserve to make its first interest rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool. While many believe there has been enough data to show the economy is softening enough to prompt an interest rate cut, others do not share that same belief.
Middleburg Communities Chief Economist Brad Case joins Wealth! to give insight into how the Fed may continue to hold rates until November and what that would look like for markets.
Case starts off with: “First of all, there’s no particular reason to cut rates right now. When data really shows a softening economy, yes, then there will be a chance to cut rates.”
He continues with what the indicators would be for that first cut: “What you’re looking for is a sustained weakness [in the economy]. So for example, the last employment report was weaker than expected. We’ve seen that several times before. A one month employment report that was weaker than expected, followed by other employment reports that were not weak. And so I think before we start to take, data like that as a sign of actual weakness throughout the economy, we need to see some sustained weakness in those in those indicators. And we need to see it across a bunch of indicators.”
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