Why drill, baby, drill ‘might not work this time’

Abrdn director of ETF investment strategy Robert Minter joins Market Domination to discuss the commodities sector outlook as markets prepare for a new administration in 2025. “‘Drill baby drill’ is the rhetoric for this, but baby’s all grown up,” Minter tells Yahoo Finance, adding, “What worked in the first Trump administration might not work this time.” He explains that the US oil supply is driven by private companies that previously received incentives to increase production, but those incentives have since been taken away. “It takes prices and profit to drive more production, so we might not see just as bullish of a supply increase as people are thinking,” he states. Looking ahead, Minter projects Brent crude oil (CL=F, BZ=F) prices will range between $70-85 in the coming year, with prices largely dependent on dollar (DX=F) strength, noting that both oil prices and the dollar cannot simultaneously remain elevated. On gold (GC=F), Minter observes, “This story hasn’t changed for three years,” pointing to ETF investors selling “hand over fist” while increased central bank investments continue to drive prices higher.
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