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Cardano (ADA) price is on the cusp of breaching its 2025 support. The large-cap altcoin has weakened its support range of between $0.57 and $0.51 every time it retested year-to-date (YTD).
This support range was pierced during the October 11, 2025, crypto crash. Ever since, the ADA price has continued to weaken on a weekly basis. According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, ADA price must hold its last line of defense around $0.51 to validate a rebound towards $0.7.
Source: X
Two Reasons Why Cardano Price Will Drop Below $0.5 Soon
Low crypto liquidity amid heightened fear of further capitulation
According to on-chain data analysis from Santiment, whale investors and retail traders have been selling aggressively in the recent past. As such, the fear of further crypto capitulation has remained high, as shown by CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed Index, which hovered around 31/100 at press time.
The reopening of the U.S. government after 40 days of shutdown is a huge relief for the markets. However, the overall liquidity has not reached the crypto market as investors continue to bet on stocks focused on artificial intelligence (AI).
Nevertheless, the highly anticipated Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Easing (QE) next month, amid rising global reserves, will be bullish for the wider crypto market including ADA.
Fractal pattern repetition: the current bull market is similar to the 2020/2021 cycle
From a technical analysis standpoint, ADA price has been following a similar fractal pattern to its 2020/2021 bull cycle.
In the weekly timeframe, it is evident that ADA’s parabolic rally to the price discovery phase began after retesting its multi-year support/resistance level established through the bear markets.
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