rewrite this title The Growing Risk in Low Earth Orbit: Humanity’s Space Adventure Could End Abruptly | Metaverse Planet

A new study indicates that the risk of chain-reaction collisions in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is steadily increasing. The resulting Kessler Syndrome could instantaneously sever our access to space.

While Elon Musk’s Starlink expands its satellite network in LEO, rival ventures are beginning to launch their own constellations. This massive, ever-growing satellite grid surrounding Earth may be paving the way for seamless global wireless internet, but it is also making LEO increasingly crowded and “polluted.” Although companies like Starlink claim these networks can be managed safely through advanced automation, continuous maneuverability, and collision avoidance algorithms, a new study by Sarah Thiele and her colleagues at Princeton University presents a serious challenge to this optimistic outlook. Researchers compare the current satellite ecosystem to a house of cards ready to collapse from a single blow.

The research is based on striking figures. When all satellites in LEO are considered, “conjunctions“—instances where two satellites pass within 1 kilometer of each other—occur on average every 22 seconds. Looking at Starlink satellites alone, such a close encounter happens approximately every 11 minutes. Every satellite in the Starlink fleet must perform an average of 41 maneuvers per year to avoid collision risks. At first glance, this might seem like a well-engineered system working flawlessly. However, in the world of engineering, real problems usually emerge in rare but high-impact edge cases.

A Severe Solar Storm Could Close the Gates of Space to Earth

According to the study, one of the most dangerous of these edge cases is solar storms. Solar storms affect satellites in two fundamental ways. First, they heat the upper layers of Earth’s atmosphere, increasing atmospheric drag. This leads to unexpected orbital deviations, positional uncertainty, and increased fuel consumption. For instance, during the Gannon Storm in May 2024, more than half of the satellites in LEO had to perform extra maneuvers just to maintain their positions and avoid collisions.

The second effect could be far more devastating. Powerful solar storms have the potential to directly disable satellite communication and navigation systems. In such a scenario, even if a satellite detects an approaching threat, it may become unable to perform an avoidance maneuver. When increased drag, positional uncertainty, and loss of control converge, the door opens for chain-reaction collisions. This brings to mind the scenario known as the Kessler Syndrome.

Based on studies conducted at NASA in 1978 by Donald J. Kessler and Burton Cour-Palais, the Kessler Syndrome describes a scenario where every new collision in orbit produces more debris, leading to subsequent collisions. In this disaster scenario, dense clouds of debris inevitably destroy every newly launched vehicle, rendering space unusable for decades. Pointing out that the Kessler Syndrome is a long-term consequence, researchers introduced a new concept to measure a more immediate threat: the CRASH Clock (Collision Risk and Safety Health).

Reminiscent of the Doomsday Clock that emphasizes the potential for nuclear catastrophe, the CRASH Clock indicates the probability of a collision occurring and causing serious damage in LEO. This metric aims to calculate how long it would take for the first major and destructive collision to occur if satellite operators were unable to send commands for avoidance maneuvers. According to the research, this duration was approximately 218 days in 2018. By June 2025, this time has dropped to just 2.8 days. With every satellite launched, the time on the CRASH Clock decreases further. At the point we have reached today, the probability of a destructive collision reaches 30 percent if loss of control lasts for just 24 hours. Such a collision could be the trigger for the Kessler Syndrome.

The Famous Solar Storm of 1859 Stands as a Striking Example

Another dimension of the problem is the unpredictability of solar storms. Such events can generally be predicted at most one or two days in advance; furthermore, what can be done when they occur is quite limited. However, researchers argue that continuous, real-time control is essential for maintaining safety in such a dynamic orbital environment. If this chain of control breaks, the house of cards holding the system up could collapse very rapidly.

This disaster scenario highlighted by Sarah Thiele and her team is not based solely on theoretical dangers. It is known that solar flares of this magnitude have occurred in the past. The Gannon Storm of 2024 was one of the most powerful solar events in recent decades. However, history offers a much more devastating example: the Carrington Event of 1859. Researchers state that if a solar storm of similar intensity were to occur today, we could lose control of satellites for much longer than three days. This could mean humanity loses its access to space entirely, perhaps for decades.

There is a delicate balance between the technical capabilities offered by LEO satellite networks and the long-term risks. Researchers argue that this balance can only be established through a realistic assessment of risks. While a single powerful solar storm has the potential to confine humanity to Earth for generations, ignoring these risks does not seem rational. This study deserves to be taken seriously for exactly this reason.

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