rewrite this title The Daily Breakdown: The first record high of 2025 is here

Stocks made their first record high of 2025, while Bitcoin continues to hold over $100K. The Daily Breakdown takes a closer look.

Thursday’s TLDR

Stocks make new record highs
Bitcoin is trying to hold above $100K
MSFT’s best day in over a year

What’s happening?

Bitcoin hit record highs earlier this week. Now, it’s the S&P 500’s turn. 

Yesterday, the index hit a high of 6,100.88, barely eking out a new all-time high. Right now, the 6,100 level has been resistance, as the S&P 500 stalled out at that level in December, too. 

This level has built up some options positioning as well, which adds to the resistance. Unless the index breaks out over this level and it becomes support, we may see a short-term breather. 

And hey, that’s not a bad thing! 

Keep in mind that the S&P 500 took about five weeks to pull back about 5%. We’ve now made back all of those losses — literally — in just seven sessions. A pause would be a good thing in my view, particularly as the back-half of next week is loaded with big events (the Fed, GDP, PCE, and four of the Magnificent 7 earnings). 

Regardless of whether stocks take a breather or clear 6,100, what a showing this has been from the bulls over the past week or so.

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The setup — Bitcoin

As mentioned, Bitcoin recently climbed to new record highs. That in itself is a bullish observation, but the ensuing price action has been equal parts tricky and constructive. 

On the one hand, Bitcoin retreated from its new record highs near $109,000 in rapid fashion and the price action has been choppy since. That’s tricky. But it’s holding over the 50-day moving average and key $100,000 level. That’s constructive. 

Is it possible for BTC to break below $100,000? Absolutely, it’s possible. This asset has traded in a range from ~$90,000 to $109,000 in less than two weeks. While Bitcoin has matured in recent years, it’s still a volatile name. 

If it can hold above $100,000, that’s very constructive. But a break down toward $95,000 is still okay for the bulls provided that BTC holds the 50-day moving average and the topside of prior downtrend resistance (blue line) as support. 

A break of these areas could usher in another test of the ~$90,000 area, which has been critical support over the last few months. But if BTC is over $100,000, it will likely have bulls hoping for another push to record highs at some point. 

What Wall Street is watching

MSFT – Shares of Microsoft rallied over 4% yesterday, the stock’s best one-day gain in more than a year. Microsoft stock hit a one-month high amid the rally, while it’s the only Magnificent 7 name that’s failed to make new highs since this summer. Check out the chart for MSFT. 

AAL – American Airlines stock is falling in pre-market trading, down about 9% despite beating on earnings and revenue expectations. But remember, the outlook is critical and this is where American Air disappointed investors. The firm’s Q1 earnings outlook called for a loss in the range of 20 cents to 40 cents a share, while analysts were looking for a loss of just 4 cents a share. 

GE – On the flip side, GE shares are rallying about 9% this morning after reporting its results. Not only did the firm easily top analysts’ expectations, but the company also announced a $7 billion buyback plan and plans to increase the dividend by 30%. 

Disclaimer:

Please note that due to market volatility, some of the prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out.