US stocks (^DJI,^GSPC, ^IXIC) closed Monday’s session in the green as Wall Street anticipates major earnings this week and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision next week. Yardeni Research chief markets strategist Eric Wallerstein joins Market Domination Overtime to discuss what he sees as the biggest risks to the market.
Wallerstein points to geopolitics as the current biggest risk to US growth, explaining, “I think a lot of the enthusiasm for cyclicals had to do with Iran and Israel’s tensions fizzling, or at least Israel’s attacks on Iran not hitting oil fields. Oil (CL=F, BZ=F) dropped five-plus percent. Financials (XLF) and materials (XLB) both did very well.”
He also points to some political instability in Japan as an issue: “The conservative parties there are really in favor of easy monetary policy. So the Nikkei (^N225) ran up, the yen weakened.”
“I think broadly, we’re just seeing fewer risks to global growth, and the US has been the strongest economy to date,” Wallerstein adds.
He notes that regardless of the outcome of the presidential election, the US will continue to see the deficit increase. “The bond market is pricing that in. And as the yield kind of fell towards 3.6%, we were saying we don’t think this lasts and it’s time to short bonds. And I think 4.25%, maybe even 4.5%, makes sense given the economic fundamentals,” he explains.
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