rewrite this title SEC greenlight triggers XRP, SOL and DOGE spot ETFs December launch in race to $10B

The Securities and Exchange Commission approved generic listing standards that allow NYSE Arca, Nasdaq, and Cboe BZX to list spot crypto exchange-traded products without a product-specific 19b-4, compressing the path to market to as little as 75 days.

Per Reuters, exchanges now have a clear rulebook for accelerating the market introduction of spot products for eligible assets, and issuers are preparing lineups that extend beyond bitcoin and ether.

This change reframes the near-term ETF roadmap into a launch calendar and a flows contest. The calendar depends on whether an asset meets the generic tests that exchanges reference, including the presence of regulated futures trading for a sustained period, exchange surveillance arrangements and robust reference pricing, while the flows contest will be decided by fees, seed sizes and platform distribution.

The practical yardstick discussed is a six-month track record of regulated futures trading, which puts Solana over the threshold now, places XRP on track to meet it in mid-November, and leaves Dogecoin already seasoned via U.S.-listed derivatives.

The new rules were approved on September 18, so the 75-day outer bound lands in early December, a window that accommodates products that satisfy the generic criteria and have operational plumbing in place.

What’s next for spot-ETF approval in the US?

For investors, the first order question is which tickers appear first and how capital accumulates compared with the initial adoption curves seen in bitcoin and ether wrappers.

The second-order question is which issuer captures scale. The answers can be framed with a probability weighted launch view and a base, bear, and bull flows model that uses JPMorgan’s published range for XRP as the anchor.

JPMorgan expects an XRP spot ETF to generate $3 to $8 billion in revenue in the first year, a range wide enough to model fee competition, marketing reach, and macro sensitivity without embedding a directional market call.

The calendar begins with the assets that have already cleared the futures tenure test and sequences those that pass it during the 75-day window.

Solana sits in the first cohort because its regulated futures contracts began trading in March, therefore, the six-month tenure was achieved this week. XRP follows as its regulated futures reach six months around November 19, keeping it inside the post-vote window, while Dogecoin enters the frame via listed U.S. derivatives that have been live for over a year.

The mix of pricing references and surveillance arrangements should be straightforward for these pairs, since benchmark providers cover them and U.S. exchanges already surveil trading across multiple venues.

AssetRegulated futures tenureEarliest practical list windowLaunch likelihood, editorialNotesSOL≥ 6 monthsOctober to NovemberHighCME listed in March, operational readiness among multiple issuersXRP≈ 6 months by mid NovemberNovember to DecemberHigh from mid NovemberMeets tenure during the 75 day window, broad U.S. pricingDOGE> 12 monthsOctober to DecemberMediumListed U.S. derivatives history, strong retail awareness, institutional demand varies

Flows modeling can then layer volumes, wrapper convenience, and fee effects on top of that sequencing.

Bitcoin spot ETFs reached triple-digit billions in assets under management within months, while Ethereum ETFs built a smaller base with more variable net flows. Those analogs argue for bursty adoption outside Bitcoin, where wrapper convenience can pull forward demand on day one and then normalize as market beta and fee differentials take over.

Anchoring on the XRP range and adjusting Solana and Dogecoin for U.S. venue depth, institutional participation via futures, and reference rate maturity produces a working set of bands for the first six to twelve months after the first trade.

AssetBear inflowsBase inflowsBull inflowsRationaleXRP$2.0B$5.0B$8.0BAnchored to JPMorgan range, trims for adverse headlines in bear, assumes multi issuer distribution in bullSOL$1.5B$3.5B$6.0BSupported by regulated futures depth and on chain activity, scaled below XRP on U.S. exchange shareDOGE$0.5B$1.5B$3.0BHigh retail turnover, institutional allocation smaller, fee sensitivity elevated

The contest to reach the first $10 billion turns on fees, seed size, and pipes

Bitcoin’s experience showed that a low fee paired with broad platform access drives a large share of flows, so the issuers that pair sub-50 basis point pricing with early wirehouse availability and visible seed capital will have an advantage.

If XRP and Solana both clear the calendar milestones above, XRP will have a head start on distribution breadth and brand awareness in the U.S. market, while Solana will benefit from a deeper institutional derivatives footprint and a large active user base.

Dogecoin’s path depends more on wrapper convenience and promotional pricing since the marginal buyer is more fee-sensitive and less benchmark-constrained.

In the race to $10 billion, XRP and DOGE will also benefit from flows into Rex-Osprey’s hybrid spot ETF launch this week. XRPR is a spot-based XRP ETF, but not purely spot. It holds a large chunk of actual XRP directly but also uses other exposure mechanisms, making it a “hybrid spot” or “spot-plus” ETF rather than an entirely direct-hold fund.

Macro and market structure variables will shape the bands. Monetary policy has shifted toward easing, liquidity conditions have improved, and exchange equities rallied on the rule change, which sets a supportive backdrop for risk allocation into new wrappers.

That said, Ethereum’s recent sequence of net outflows shows how quickly flows can retrace when market beta turns or when fee differentials are small relative to tracking and spread costs.

Therefore, new alt wrappers will show lumpier daily prints through month three, stabilizing as secondary market spreads compress and model portfolios evaluate the cost of spot exposure via ETFs versus existing on-exchange inventory.

Issuer behavior adds another layer

The fastest path to asset growth involves multiple SKUs under the same ticker umbrella, including share classes with temporary fee waivers and currency-hedged sleeves. The generic listing path makes baskets feasible alongside single asset funds, which draws in allocation models that prefer diversified exposure.

As S-1s post, fee tables and authorized participant rosters will reveal where early scale concentrates, and those disclosures will determine whether one issuer captures an outsized share, as seen in Bitcoin, or whether flows fragment more evenly across brands.

The rule vote created a narrow window, the mechanics are now defined, and the first wave of spot products can be staged against a 75-day calendar.

The rule change is effective for the main U.S. listing venues, which means first prints can emerge as soon as operational work is complete.

The market conversation is already dense, which keeps attention on the first set of filings, fee cards, and seed disclosures that will convert the calendar and the bands above into live trading data.

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