rewrite this title Is It Too Early to Invest in These Quantum Computing Stocks? – NerdWallet

You’ve probably heard the term “quantum computing” before. You may not understand it — very few people really do — but you’ve likely heard those words at some point in the last few years.

According to Google Trends data, interest in the term “quantum computing” has more than doubled over the last year. There’s even an ETF now that supposedly gives investors exposure to quantum computing-related companies.

But is this emerging technology really worth investing in yet, or is it too early to tell who will excel in the space? Here’s the lowdown.

We’re not going to explain the workings of quantum computers in great detail here, because frankly, it’s hard to really grasp the nuts and bolts unless you have a postgraduate degree in physics. But here’s our attempt at a broad-strokes explanation of why quantum computing is a potentially valuable technology:

Quantum physics is a scientific discipline that mainly studies physics on extremely small scales and extremely short timeframes. (We’re talking about, for example, the speed and distance at which an electron orbits an atomic nucleus). Computer engineering also increasingly operates at the nano-scale; thumbnail-sized computer chips consist of billions of individual circuits, and each of those circuits may only consist of a few individual atoms lined up.

In recent years, computer scientists have realized that there are ways to exploit various quantum physics phenomena to build the fastest computers ever created.

Quantum computing is a broad umbrella term that describes a lot of different techniques. Some, for example, involve cooling the computer hardware to temperatures near absolute zero in order to get rid of heat-related interference.

As of 2025, quantum computers don’t have a lot of applications yet. The stocks discussed in this article are publicly-traded companies that experts believe will significantly contribute to or benefit from quantum computing technology in the near future, but they aren’t quantum computing pure-plays.

Quantum computers are a very early-stage, experimental technology, and researchers mostly test their capabilities with extremely difficult math problems. But they show great promise in these tests. Some quantum computers, such as Alphabet’s (GOOG) Sycamore computer, can solve problems in seconds that would have taken a conventional supercomputer years to calculate.

Below are the seven top-performing U.S.-listed stocks in the BlueStar Machine Learning and Quantum Computing Index and the Solactive Quantum Computing Index, in order of one-year returns.

Both indexes consist of publicly-traded companies that are expected to substantially contribute to or benefit from the growth of quantum computing technology in the years ahead.

Source: Finviz. Data is current as of May 29, 2025, and is intended for informational purposes only.

At the moment, there’s only one U.S.-listed ETF available that tracks the quantum computing indexes referenced above: the Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM). That ETF charges a reasonable expense ratio of 0.40%, and has outperformed the S&P 500 index over the last year by a respectable margin.

But there’s a caveat worth noting about the QTUM ETF: It tracks the BlueStar index mentioned above, which consists of public companies that may be major contributors to or beneficiaries of quantum tech in the near future. Generally speaking, these companies aren’t entirely focused on quantum computing. If you’re looking for an ETF of companies that are all-in on quantum computing, you may be disappointed.

An April 2024 report from McKinsey estimates that the quantum computing industry could grow to as much as $131 billion by 2040, which would equate to a growth rate of up to 17% per year.

These sound like big numbers out of context, but it’s worth noting that by tech investing standards, they’re actually pretty modest. $131 billion is less than the market cap of International Business Machines (IBM). 17% is less than half of IBM’s returns over the last year. The estimated size and growth rate of the entire quantum computing industry over the next 15 years are dwarfed by the size and growth rate of one moderately-large tech company.

That brings up another important point about the immaturity of quantum computing: Most of the companies in the list above are large, diversified tech companies, such as IBM, that mostly do non-quantum-computing work. They are included in quantum computing stock indexes simply because they are involved in quantum computer development in some way, or expected to benefit significantly from it.

There may not really be any “pure play” quantum computing stocks yet. Our article on the top AI stocks sometimes features a stock called Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT), which shows up in some next-generation computing stock indexes. Yet QUBT doesn’t appear in either of the major publicly available indexes of quantum computing stocks.

Quantum computing uses some really fascinating (and really complicated) physics phenomena to build better computers, and it might grow into a transformative technology in the years ahead. But for now, it’s a bit of a buzzword, and investors should maintain some healthy skepticism about the hype around it.

Indexes of quantum computing stocks mostly consist of large-cap tech stocks, plus a few big healthcare and finance stocks. It’s the same story with the one currently available quantum computing ETF.

To be clear, these types of blue-chip stocks aren’t bad investments to own as part of a diversified portfolio. But are they going to help you get rich quick by raking in the quantum computing bucks? Probably not yet.