Oil (CL=F, BZ=F) prices rose Monday following President Biden’s ban on new offshore drilling. United ICAP energy specialist Scott Shelton joins Catalysts to discuss market implications and his outlook on the broader oil sector. Shelton emphasizes that US production growth primarily comes from onshore drilling. Regarding long-term impacts, he notes, “If this stays intact, it inhibits our ability to grow, but peak demand is not far away with EVs, and there’s plenty of spare capacity out of OPEC, so the concern really isn’t there.” On potential policy reversal, Shelton observes, “I think if Trump has his way, it won’t be intact. The question is, can he make that change?” Discussing key market catalysts, Shelton focuses on Iran and Russia. He points to declining Russian exports, forcing some Asian markets to seek regional alternatives. He adds that, since Iran supplies a significant amount of oil to China, “if, all of a sudden, we can find a way to slow that down, China’s going to be forced to go elsewhere, which will have a positive effect on balances.”
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