rewrite this title Nvidia’s $4T Surge & China AI Chip Deal

The AI industry experienced an unexpected turn today. After a series of negotiations with both the U.S. and Chinese governments, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang successfully secured approval to export advanced H20 chips to China, despite previous opposition from the U.S. administration. The United States still considers the export of cutting-edge chips a national security risk. However, the situation is more complex—chips have become part of broader trade negotiations.

Huang argued that the Chinese government cannot afford to deploy U.S. chips for military purposes as it can’t remain dependent on U.S. technology, and also because China itself has enough computing capacity. A strict export ban, he claimed, could backfire by accelerating Chinese tech development and empowering competitors like Huawei. Although Huawei still lags behind technologically, it remains Nvidia’s biggest regional rival. The situation reflects a delicate balance between economic interests and security concerns.

More than meets the eye

In the ongoing U.S.–China race for technological dominance, artificial intelligence plays a central role. Following the meteoric rise of tools like ChatGPT, AI has become a strategic priority for global economies. Huawei is now aggressively trying to poach Nvidia’s clients in regions such as the Middle East and Southeast Asia, confirming Beijing’s ambition to expand its tech influence beyond domestic markets.

The export permission acts as a form of “controlled bleeding” from Washington’s perspective—meant to preserve U.S. technological dominance, mitigate security threats, and simultaneously prevent Huawei from bringing Chinese alternatives up to Nvidia’s level. Letting Chinese manufacturers overtake Nvidia’s technology is seen as an unacceptable risk.

By operating in the Chinese market, Nvidia ensures that local developers remain dependent on its platform. This is a way to maintain control over the ecosystem without giving China access to technologies it does not already possess.

However, China is undoubtedly pushing to stimulate domestic production and free itself from dependence on U.S. supply chains. The trade war ignited by Donald Trump highlighted the security vulnerabilities inherent in international interdependence. Can the world’s leading economies truly decouple after decades of globalization?

China’s export ban on rare earths served as a painful warning for the U.S., while China’s own demand for Western technologies brought Beijing back to the negotiating table. The approval to export Nvidia’s chips reveals an acknowledgment from both sides that full decoupling could have serious economic and geopolitical consequences.

Nvidia stock: Growth & demand outlook

In July, Nvidia reached a historic milestone — its market capitalization surpassed $4 trillion, briefly making it the most valuable company in the world and the first to break this level. All of this has been driven by the relentless demand for its artificial intelligence chips, which has withstood a total export ban to China, which is now turning around.

Since April 4th, Nvidia has risen over 80% to new all time highs, as investors realized that the company will remain the key supplier of the “brains” powering the AI revolution — not just for data centers, but also for automotive, healthcare, cloud, and other segments.

Despite years of record-breaking performance, Nvidia is still struggling to keep up with demand. Its chips are sold out months in advance, with everyone from tech giants to VC firms racing to secure their stockpile of chips.

In the last quarter, Nvidia had to write off 4.5 billion dollars due to the export ban. The expected impact to full-year results was at $15 billion. But the gloom didn’t last long. Now, the company will try to catch up and try to ship as much to China as possible, before Trump changes his mind.

While the company will have to completely restart its supply to the region, China will likely provide a massive boost to next quarter’s results. It remains a key market for chips, and Nvidia remains the supplier of choice for most of China’s tech giants, showing that Huawei is still playing catch-up.

New Chips and the 2025+ horizon

While Blackwell, Nvidia’s cutting-edge chip platform, is still ramping, the chipmaker has already announced a new generation of chips due to be released in the back half of 2026. Vera Rubin, as the chips are called, should be able to double Blackwell’s performance. This is necessary to match the increasing computing needs of AI inference, the process of running AI models.

At the current pace, the company is expected to be the first to hit 5 trillion dollars, which could happen as soon as 2027 according to Wall Street estimates. But the road could get lumpy, depending on conditions outside the company’s control, such as tariffs and macroeconomics. We have yet to see how the US economy will develop, although there are little signs of slowing down at the moment.

Wherever AI evolves — in the U.S., China, or beyond — it’s highly likely that Nvidia will remain at the heart of that progress.

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