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Whether you’re a fan of the Thunder or Pacers, trying to find the best NBA Finals bets for Game 5 has been a challenge. That’s why I’m taking a slightly different approach for Monday, June 16.
I’ve split this list into two sections — one for those backing the Oklahoma City Thunder and one for bettors riding with the Indiana Pacers.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Best Bets for Game 5
Thunder -9.5
Oklahoma City has been the NBA’s best home team this season, going 35-6 during the regular season with an average margin of victory of 16.5 points. In the playoffs, they’re 9-2 at home, winning by an average of more than 26 points. A couple of blowouts have inflated that number, but one thing is clear:
The Thunder are at their most dominant on home court.
During the Western Conference finals, OKC won its home games by an average of 18 points. And in their one home win over Indiana in this series, the Thunder cruised to a 16-point victory — perfectly in line with their regular-season trend.
Expect another double-digit win as they cover the spread.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 34.5 Points (-108)
The MVP averaged 32.7 points per game during the regular season and 30.4 during the playoffs. If the Thunder are going to take control of the series, SGA will have to lead the way on their home floor.
He dropped 38 points in Game 1 — and OKC still lost.
That just proves he can’t do it alone. Jalen Williams or Chet Holmgren must step up, too. But if Gilgeous-Alexander doesn’t have a monster game, the Thunder could be headed back to Indianapolis trailing 3-2.
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Indiana Pacers: Best Bets for Game 5
Pacers Moneyline
After OKC’s furious fourth-quarter comeback in Game 4 to tie the series 2-2, many have written the Pacers off. But here’s the reality: Indiana has not trailed in this series until that late collapse.
The Pacers can absolutely steal Game 5.
The key? Limiting mistakes — specifically turnovers and unnecessary fouls. In their two losses, Indiana was outscored at the free-throw line by 10 and 9 points, respectively. When they stay disciplined, they can match up with anyone on both ends of the court — including the Thunder.
A cautious bettor might take the points, knowing OKC’s double-digit home wins are a trend. But if you believe the Pacers will get it done, why not take them to win outright?
Tyrese Haliburton OVER 30.5 Pts + Ast + Reb (-112)
Indiana doesn’t rely on a single 30-point scorer to compete — but they do need a strong all-around effort from Haliburton.
He nearly posted a triple-double in Game 3 and put up a 14-10-6 stat line in Game 1. He hit 33-plus combined points, assists and rebounds in all four wins against the Knicks in the previous round. But in Game 4 against OKC, he tallied just 18 points with two rebounds and seven assists — not nearly enough.
If the Pacers are going to pull off the upset in Game 5, Haliburton will need a full, stat-sheet-stuffing performance.
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