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Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase and one of the most influential figures in global finance, recently made a bold statement: Investors are showing “an extraordinary amount of complacency.” That immediately caught my attention.
I’ve been analyzing markets for a long time, and I’ve seen cycles where investor sentiment gets too negative—and others where it swings too far in the other direction. Right now, I believe we’re in one of those moments where people are ignoring some pretty serious economic risks. Dimon’s comments weren’t about panic. They were about awareness. And I agree with him.
Markets Are Rebounding—But That Doesn’t Mean the Risk is Gone
On the surface, the market looks healthy. Stocks have rebounded. Bitcoin is trading near its highs. Gold is strong. And while real estate is still soft, some investors are beginning to get active again. But I think this is exactly what Dimon was warning about: the idea that because markets bounced back, the problems are solved.
That just isn’t the case.
Earlier this year, when tariffs were announced, markets dropped fast. It looked like a correction. But instead of digesting the underlying risks, investors shrugged it off. Stocks climbed right back up. And now we’re acting like nothing happened. From my perspective, that kind of reaction is a textbook example of complacency.
Tariffs Are a Drag
Let’s be honest: If we had announced 30% tariffs on China and 10% on the rest of the world a year ago, it would’ve been headline news for weeks. Now, it barely registers. But the economic impact is real—and it’s growing.
Tariffs raise costs for businesses. Those costs get passed on to consumers. And even if the long-term strategy is to bring manufacturing back to the U.S.—which I support—that transition will take years. In the meantime, these tariffs are a drag on the economy. They hit small businesses the hardest, and they’re already operating on thin margins.
The Bigger Concern: Stagflation, Debt, and Structural Risk
What worries me most is that we’re not just talking about recession anymore. We’re staring down the barrel of a more complex challenge: stagflation. That’s when inflation stays high while growth stalls. And if that happens, it changes the playbook for every investor.
Inflation is already keeping mortgage rates high, which continues to suppress housing activity. Real estate can’t recover until rates come down—or incomes rise. And I’m seeing signs of weakness in the labor market, too. Hiring has slowed. Delinquencies are rising. Credit card balances are up. The average consumer is stretched thin.
And then there’s the national debt. I’ve said this before: It’s not going to cause a crash tomorrow, but it’s a slow-moving threat that affects everything. A $36 trillion debt load increases inflation expectations, raises the cost of borrowing, and limits the government’s ability to respond in a crisis. What’s worse, neither political party is seriously addressing it. In fact, new proposals are only adding to the deficit. That tells me we’re flying blind on one of the most important long-term issues in the economy.
Consumers Are Starting to Crack
We can’t ignore the micro side of this either. The American consumer—the foundation of our economy—is under pressure. I look at the data every week, and the trends aren’t encouraging. Delinquencies are ticking up. Student loan payments are back in full swing. Wages aren’t keeping up with inflation. And consumer sentiment is falling.
I’ve always believed that when consumers feel squeezed, they spend less. And when that happens, corporate earnings take a hit. That’s why I think the stock market is mispricing some of this risk. The fundamentals don’t justify the optimism I’m seeing right now.
So, is Jamie Dimon Right?
Do I think we’re heading into a crash? Not necessarily. But do I think most investors are underestimating the risks in today’s market? Absolutely.
I sold some equities earlier this year—not for political reasons, but because I saw more value elsewhere. I’ve held back from selling more, but I’ve definitely changed my strategy. I’m in capital preservation mode right now. I’m not looking to make massive moves. I’m looking to protect my downside and position myself for whatever comes next.
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What Could Actually Improve the Outlook?
Let’s game it out.
Could tax cuts help? Maybe—but they won’t take effect until 2026, and they won’t benefit everyone equally.
Could AI drive new growth? Possibly. But in the short term, AI adoption could lead to layoffs and economic adjustment. It’s not a silver bullet for consumer spending.
Could we see a full pullback on tariffs? That would help. But it’s far from guaranteed, especially in an election cycle.
From where I sit, none of these levers provide a quick or certain path to recovery. That’s why I think we need to adjust expectations. I’m not saying you stop investing—but I am saying this is a time for discipline.
What I’m Doing Right Now
I’ve shifted my focus toward safety and smart positioning. I’ve raised my cash reserves. I’ve culled underperforming assets. I’ve tightened my real estate criteria.
If I buy property right now, it has to meet a strict checklist:
It must be priced below market value.
It must be cash-flow positive from day one.
I’m putting more money down and using less leverage.
I’m only doing deals where I see walk-in equity and a strong exit strategy.
In fact, I’m buying a property this week. But I’m going slower than usual. I’m being conservative. And I’m keeping an eye on the data every step of the way.
Complacency isn’t a Strategy—Preparation is
Markets go through cycles. And the best investors don’t get caught up in euphoria or fear. They adapt. They manage risk. They prepare for different outcomes. That’s what I’m doing now.
I’m not predicting doom. But I’m also not pretending everything’s fine just because the market bounced back. We have too many structural challenges to ignore, and the signs are right in front of us.
If you’re feeling uncertain, that’s not a bad thing. It means you’re paying attention. The worst thing you can do right now is assume that everything will work itself out. The smarter move is to stay cautious, stay diversified, and focus on building long-term resilience.
That’s how I’m playing it. And I think more investors should consider doing the same.
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Dave Meyer is a real estate investor and the VP of Data & Analytics at BiggerPockets. Follow him @thedatadeli.
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