Dollar pushes higher as investors reassess rate cuts

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The US dollar (DX=F, DX-Y.NYB) pushed higher on Tuesday, rebounding after being on track for a one-week low following reports that President-elect Donald Trump won’t commit to an aggressive tariff plan.

“The dollar has swung to a gain today after the ISM services (54.1) and job openings (8.1M) strongly beat expectations in December, leading markets to roll back their expectations for Federal Reserve easing this year to only 33 basis points,” Kyle Chapman, FX markets analyst at Ballinger Group, wrote in an email.

“There are two main points leading the dollar higher. The first is a rebound in labor demand reflected in the strong rise in job openings, and the second is the strongest ISM prices paid index since February 2023,” he said.

Prices paid in the services sector jumped to a nearly two-year high, suggesting the inflation fight is not yet finished. Following the data’s release, traders scaled back rate cut bets, placing a less than 50% chance the central bank cuts rates ahead of its June meeting, per the CME FedWatch Tool.

“It is certainly too early to call a reacceleration in inflation from this round of data, and markets will take the bigger clues from non-farms on Friday,” Chapman said. “With the market now firmly biased towards only a single rate cut this year, for me the room is only growing for a pullback in the overstretched hawkish repricing of the Fed path.”

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