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Bitcoin price sits around $115,000 as the Federal Reserve meets this week. Policy risk concentrates around Wednesday’s Oct. 29 decision at 2 p.m. ET, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Markets price a 25 basis point cut for this meeting with further easing odds into year end, according to the CME FedWatch methodology that maps fed funds futures to meeting-by-meeting probabilities.
The setup ties directly to Bitcoin’s macro channel, where guidance on the front end transmits to 10-year real yields and the dollar, then into ETF demand and derivatives positioning on the tape.
Flows frame the week. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs swung from a large outflow on Oct. 16 to a large inflow on Oct. 21, then a modest net gain on Oct. 24.
Concentration remains in the leaders, with cumulative nets since launch at IBIT plus $65.3 billion, FBTC plus $12.6 billion, and GBTC minus $24.6 billion, according to Farside.
Breadth outside the top two issuers has been inconsistent, which makes the policy tone a near term driver of allocation follow-through after the decision window.
Date
Total US spot BTC ETFs net flow (USD m)
Notes
Oct. 16
-531
Outflow burst
Oct. 21
+477
Snapback day
Oct. 24
+33
IBIT +58
Positioning is heavy into the event. Options open interest sits near record territory on Deribit, which raises gap risk around headlines and the press conference cadence.
Perpetuals funding across major venues has run modestly positive with high aggregate futures open interest, according to CoinGlass.
That mix can be a catalyst for two-way wicks if the path deviates from pricing. The Oct. 17 risk-off session that saw roughly $147 million in BTC liquidations tracked by CoinGlass illustrates the wipeout potential when positioning is crowded.
Macro context has shifted over the past two months.
The policy path has repriced toward cuts into the Oct. 28 to 29 meeting, per CME FedWatch, while parts of the U.S. data flow have been impaired by shutdown disruptions that complicate visibility.
Real yields eased from summer highs, with the 10-year TIPS proxy around 1.7 percent late last week, and the dollar stabilized, with a pop against the yen into Fed week.
Those variables matter for digital asset risk appetite, since BTC has shown episodes of strong inverse correlation with U.S. real yields and tends to lag when the dollar firms, although the relationship is state-dependent and can break down.
Mechanically, a 25 bp cut combined with a cautious tone would anchor front-end expectations, which would tend to keep 10-year real yields flat to slightly lower and the dollar steady to softer.
Under that path, ETF nets could skew mixed to modestly positive with a chance of broader participation beyond the top two if Powell avoids hawkish twists, while the spot tape trades range-bound with buy-the-dip interest around presser volatility.
A more dovish 25 bp paired with an easing bias or softer labor acknowledgments would be expected to shave real yields and pressure the dollar, a setup that historically supports ETF breadth and opens a 6 to 12 percent upside window over the 72-hour post-decision span if flows chase.
A hold with a firm tone lifts real yields and the dollar, a combination that has coincided with net outflows in prior episodes, where IBIT and FBTC can absorb some demand yet the aggregate can turn negative, and where long liquidations pick up given elevated open interest.
A surprise 50 bp cut would pull real yields down, push the dollar lower, and invite outsized inflows with call-wing interest on options, followed by profit taking into week’s end.
Fed outcome (Oct. 29)
10y TIPS
USD (DXY)
ETF nets, next 2–3 days
BTC 72h tape
Derivatives risk
-25 bp, cautious tone
Flat to -5–10 bp
Flat to softer
Mixed to modest positive, broader if tone steady
Range to +3–6%, buy dips on presser moves
High OI with modest funding, two-way wicks
Dovish -25 bp, easing bias
-10–20 bp
Down
Positive with better breadth
+6–12%, ETF-led chase risk
Funding drifts positive, short liq risk
Hold, firm tone
+10–20 bp
Up
Flat to negative, leaders resilient
-5–10%, long wipeout risk
Funding flips, skew put-rich
Surprise -50 bp
-20–30 bp
Down hard
Outsized positive
+10–15% squeeze risk
IV pops, call wing bid, profit taking later
For day-of execution, the causal chain is straightforward.
Watch the 10-year real yield proxy and DXY during the statement and press conference. A 10 bp real-yield drop in a short window has mapped to stronger next-day ETF nets in prior episodes, while a firm dollar often feeds defensive flows.
Refresh the U.S. spot ETF flow tape after 6 to 7 p.m. ET and again before the open to catch late allocations with dashboard from SoSoValue or Farside Investors.
For derivatives stress, monitor aggregate open interest versus market cap, funding rate heat maps, and liquidations dashboards on CoinGlass, then cross-check options 25-delta skew and term structure on Deribit to confirm whether the surface is put-rich under a hawkish read or call-rich under a dovish chase.
The macro calendar adds two potential second-order impulses after the Fed. Q3 GDP arrives Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET by personal income and outlays including PCE.
Nonfarm payrolls are slated for the first Friday of November on the Bureau of Labor Statistics schedule, with timing subject to change given recent shutdown headlines.
In crypto microstructure, ETF breadth relative to the leaders, any single-day outlier exceeding $300 million, CME share of futures open interest, and front-month implied volatility into month-end are the items to track as the market processes the policy path.
Across all of this, correlation regimes can shift. BTC’s link to real yields and the dollar has been strong at times and weak at others, which argues for focusing on the policy guidance and its transmission to rates, the USD, and ETF demand rather than treating a single coefficient as stable.
The incremental data releases and Powell’s tone are set to define that mapping into month-end. The BEA releases Q3 GDP at 8:30 a.m. ET on Oct. 30 and PCE on Oct. 31.
The post Crypto’s week ahead: Everything you need to know to close out October appeared first on CryptoSlate.
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