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BlackRock is one of the four horsemen of the US economy, along with investment giants Vanguard, Fidelity and State Street. And now there’s a Moody’s recession prediction terrifying all of these institutions.
All of these investment institutions are lugubrious on the US economy - here’s why.
Moody’s Recession Prediction: Two More Weeks
Recession risks are rising, according to Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi. In a recent post on X, he warned that U.S. growth is faltering under mounting policy pressures.
Zandi later clarified that he doesn’t believe the economy is in a formal recession yet, but said certain sectors have already slipped into one.
In an interview with Business Insider, Zandi pointed to tariffs, immigration restrictions, and Federal Reserve policy as the main headwinds. Together, he said, they’ve created unusually high uncertainty, stalling investment and hiring.
BREAKING: Moody’s Ratings warns US economy nears recession, citing 3 key factors:
— Payroll employment— Employment levels— Consistent job declines
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All of this has BlackRock, which manages over $12.5 trillion in assets under management, about 40% of the United States’s GDP, nervous and already selling its holdings.
September is always a bad month for stocks. Historically, September has been the graveyard for the S&P 500, with an average loss of 1.1% dating back to 1928. Two more weeks could be the start of it.
Not to mention, in a recent report, BlackRock cited these economic concerns:
Aging shortage: Developed countries have record-low birth rates (Google “sperm count 2045”). This may result in high inflation over time and a shift in demand toward industries catering to seniors, such as healthcare, real estate, and leisure.
A fragmenting world: According to BlackRock, “We think the Ukraine war and fraught U.S.-China relations have ushered in a new era of global fragmentation and competing defense and economic blocs.” BlackRock believes global economic growth will be more volatile, but opens possibilities in emerging markets.
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Jackson Hole: Crash the Economy With No Survivors
The last bit of news terrifying investors is the Fed’s meeting today in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Wall Street largely expects rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this fall, pointing to September as the most likely start. Yet, undercutting those hopes are Tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump, which have added economic strain, and the administration has leaned hard on the Fed to shift policy.
Unlike past Jackson Hole meetings, many experts believe Powell is unlikely to offer strong clues.
Inflation remains sticky above target and has been pushed higher by tariffs, muddying the case for cuts. Some analysts argue the central bank will want more evidence before moving.
In reality, the U.S. economy feels a pinprick away from something bad:
Student loan debt is reaching an alarming $2 trillion, while credit card debt is surging.
Banks are tightening on consumer credit. When this happens, consumer spending, which has stayed strong but shifted to credit, will get shafted.
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Are Things That Bad?
The hour draws near now. The bell has tolled for thee, America, at long last. Food will be a luxury by early 2026. Is that how things will pan out?
No. While things aren’t that bad, all signals point to a slowing, if not crashing, economy after one more run-up for stocks and crypto that many see coming in Q4 from rate cuts. But remain calm. Things will get better. Drink copious amounts of Chivas Regal. Kidding. Partially.
Hang on to your long-term investments with solid foundations, sell what you must for immediate cash, and trust that everything will eventually turn out all right. Get some fresh air, touch grass.
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Key Takeaways
BlackRock is one of the four horsemen of the US economy, along with investment giants Vanguard, Fidelity and State Street – and now they’re all terrified.
All eyes are on Powell today at Jackson Hole. As inflation lingers and labor metrics soften.
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