rewrite this title and make it good for SEOUkraine war refugees skew Israel’s migration figures

Some 82,700 Israelis left Israel in 2023, considerably more than in 2022, and twice as many as in the years before that, according to the latest published migration figures. Closer examination of the data reveals, however, that many of those who left were immigrants from Russia and Ukraine who apparently came to Israel because of the war and the extensive draft in both countries.

Removing them from the statistics gives a somewhat brighter picture, but the numbers are still significantly higher than in the past. Is this a sign of things to come? It’s too early to say.

How do we know if someone has left Israel?

The migration data for Israel are subject both to objective methodological difficulties, and to exploitation for political purpose as statistics in a vacuum. In order to understand what migration to and from Israel really looks like, it’s necessary first of all to understand how the statistics are compiled.

When a person flies abroad, it’s not possible to know without thorough questioning what his aim is and when, if at all, he plans to return. Sometimes the person himself doesn’t know how permanent his stay away from the country will be. The definition used by the Central Bureau of Statistics is therefore a retrospective test. Anyone who has travelled abroad and not returned after a year is considered to have left.

In 2024, the Central Bureau of Statistics changed the definition of leaving Israel. Until then, a stay of 365 consecutive days overseas was required to classify a person as having left, but a study by the Bureau found that this count was not reliable, since sometimes home visits interrupted the sequence and prevented a person from being classified as having left even though this was clearly the case. Therefore, in an attempt to adopt globally accepted standards, the Bureau announced last year that it was switching “from a consecutive approach to an approach that allows for short visits” such that the overseas stay required was shortened to 275 days (not necessarily consecutive) during the year to the date of the check.

Even after the change, it is still only possible to know with a delay of a year what the migration numbers were during a given period. The migration figures for 2024 that were presented by the Central Bureau of Statistics at its annual conference late last month actually relate to 2023. We shall only receive full statistics for 2024 at the end of 2025. So, for the sake of clarity, from here onwards we shall refer to the figures in accordance with the period to which they relate, and not when they were released.

RELATED ARTICLES

Two major events occurred in 2023: the government’s promotion of its judicial overhaul program, which raised many fears and turned emigration into a matter of public discussion; and the start of the war in October of that year.

October 2023 was particularly extreme for emigration, following the attack by Hamas and the opening of hostilities, and the balance of migration reached 12,600 net leavers (with fewer Israelis returning that month), which compares with a negative balance of just 1,300 in October 2022. But these numbers, high though they are, cannot explain the sharp rise in the number of leavers in the year as a whole, which totaled 59,000, which compares with 27,500 in 2022. Even before the war broke out, emigration was unusually high.

So what can explain the numbers? At least in part, the explanation lies in events only indirectly connected to Israel. In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, and many were forced to flee the war zones. Ukraine announced extensive conscription, and in September 2022 Russia announced a partial call-up of reserves to fill the ranks following the failure of the initial assault. In addition, the economic situation in Russia deteriorated. Millions fled both countries to any destination possible, and people entitled to do so under the Law of Return came to Israel. Thus in 2022 the balance of migration to and from Israel was 81,200 more arrivals than departures, up from 30,200 in 2021.

From the latest figures it now emerges that many of these people chose not to remain in Israel for long, and left the following year, apparently for other Western countries. Of the 82,700 leavers in 2023, 26,300 were new immigrants who had arrived in Israel in the preceding two years, most of them from Russia and Ukraine.

If we exclude departing immigrants from the calculation, we find that the balance of international migration turns from minus 18,800 to plus 8,000, not nearly as bad as might have been thought. Nevertheless, we should not rejoice too soon: between 2010 and 2021, the positive migration balance was 16,600-38,100 annually. So even without the departing immigrants, there was a considerable shift, partly because of the effects of the war, and partly because of other circumstances that arose in 2023.

Young and educated: What characterizes the leavers?

A deeper look at the figures shows that those who leave are preponderantly young people at the start of their careers, with people aged 20-40 accounting for 40% of the total, while their proportion in the population as a whole is just 27%. Residents of the center and Tel Aviv account for a substantial proportion of the leavers, again higher than their proportion in the population as a whole. The northern and southern regions and Judea and Samaria are under-represented among those leaving the country, while for Jerusalem and Haifa the representation is fairly close to their proportions in the population.

As far as education is concerned, 53.7% of those who leave Israel have thirteen or more years of study, which compares with 45.2% in the general population. On the whole, then, the leavers are young, relatively well-educated and mobile, with a high chance of succeeding in careers overseas, and for whom it’s worth taking the risk of emigrating to a new country.

To sum up, matters in Israel are, as usual, complicated. There is indeed a large exodus, but attention needs to be paid to who is leaving and why. Nevertheless, the situation in 2023 was much worse than in a normal year. What happened in 2024? We shall discover that only at the end of 2025.

Published by Globes, Israel business news – en.globes.co.il – on March 10, 2025.

© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd., 2025.