rewrite this title Citi raises stablecoin market projection to $1.9 trillion by 2030 despite low institutional maturity

Citigroup revised its stablecoin market forecast upward to $1.9 trillion by 2030, but warned that institutional adoption remains at just 0.5 on a scale of 0 to 10, according to a report published on Sept. 25.

The banking giant raised its base case projection from $1.6 trillion in its April 2025 forecast, citing accelerated momentum from regulatory clarity and increased integration of the payment network. The bull case scenario now reaches $4 trillion, up from $3.7 trillion.

David Cunningham, head of strategy and partnerships for digital assets at Citi Services, stated:

“Stablecoin issuance volume is up 40% this year as executive orders, the GENIUS Act, and major platforms remove friction.”

The revised projections are based on three primary drivers. First, partial deposit substitution in the US and overseas accounts for 45% of the base case, with Citi modeling 2.5% of 2030 US bank deposits shifting to stablecoins.

Second, continued crypto market expansion drives 40% of growth through 20% annual issuance increases. Third, 15% comes from banknote substitution, particularly 10% of overseas US currency holdings and 2.5% of domestic banknotes.

The current stablecoin supply reached $292 billion as of Sept. 25, up from $224 billion at the start of the year. Transaction volumes now approach $1 trillion monthly on an adjusted basis, nearly double year-ago levels.

But corporate enthusiasm lags projections. Catherine Gu, head of institutional client solutions at Visa, characterized institutional stablecoin adoption at “maybe 0.5 on a scale of 0 to 10,” noting that serious interest across banks and asset managers remains limited.

The report also found that most mainstream corporates stay “curious rather than enthusiastic” about stablecoins. Large companies already secure favorable banking terms and faster payments, which reduces the stablecoin’s appeal for high-value transactions.

Citi believes bank tokens, including tokenized deposits and deposit tokens, may capture larger transaction volumes than stablecoins by 2030, potentially exceeding $100 trillion annually.

These bank-issued tokenized instruments offer familiar regulatory frameworks and easier integration with existing treasury systems.

The challenges for the stablecoin ecosystem identified in the report include fragmentation across multiple blockchains, privacy concerns on public networks, and uncertainty regarding accounting treatment.

Without cash equivalent recognition under IAS7, stablecoins remain less attractive to corporate treasurers.

The report concluded that, despite regulatory progress, including the passage of the GENIUS Act and the establishment of international frameworks in Hong Kong and the UAE, institutional adoption still requires addressing interoperability, scalability, and trust issues that currently limit enterprise-scale deployment.

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