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Home Markets Stock Market

rewrite this title What the stock market typically does after the U.S. election, according to history

Christopher Hayes,Alex Harring by Christopher Hayes,Alex Harring
November 5, 2024
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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. 

NYSE

Stocks typically rise after a presidential election, but investors need to be prepared for some short-term choppiness first, history shows.

Follow: Election 2024 live updates: Trump and Harris await Presidential election results

The three major benchmarks on average have seen gains between Election Day and year-end in the presidential election year going back to 1980, according to CNBC data. However, investors should not be expecting a straight shot up in the market after polls close.

The S&P 500 after the election

Election Date Day After Week After Month Later Year End 11/3/20202.20%5.23%8.83%11.48%11/8/20161.11%1.91%4.98%4.64%11/6/2012-2.37%-3.77%-1.01%-0.15%11/4/2008-5.27%-10.62%-15.96%-10.19%11/2/20041.12%2.97%5.29%7.20%11/7/2000-1.58%-3.42%-6.17%-7.79%11/5/19961.46%2.16%4.23%3.72%11/3/1992-0.67%-0.31%2.38%3.76%11/8/1988-0.66%-2.48%0.52%0.93%11/6/1984-0.73%-2.61%-4.49%-1.86%11/4/19802.12%1.72%5.77%5.21%Average-0.30%-0.84%0.40%1.54%Median-0.66%-0.31%2.38%3.72%

Source: CNBC

In fact, the three indexes have all averaged declines in the session and week following those voting days. Stocks have tended to erase most or all of those losses within a month, CNBC data shows.

This means investors should not be anticipating an immediate pop on Wednesday or the next few days after.

The Dow after the election

Election Date Day After Week After Month Later Year End 11/3/20201.34%7.06%9.06%11.38%11/8/20161.40%3.22%6.99%7.80%11/6/2012-2.36%-3.70%-1.30%-1.07%11/4/2008-5.05%-9.68%-12.98%-8.82%11/2/20041.01%3.49%5.47%7.45%11/7/2000-0.41%-2.48%-3.06%-1.51%11/5/19961.59%3.04%5.85%6.04%11/3/1992-0.91%-0.83%0.74%1.50%11/8/1988-0.43%-2.37%0.67%1.93%11/6/1984-0.88%-3.02%-5.92%-2.62%11/4/19801.70%0.73%3.55%2.86%Average-0.27%-0.41%0.83%2.27%Median-0.41%-0.83%0.74%1.93%

Source: CNBC

That is especially true given the chance that the presidential race, which is considered neck-and-neck, may not be called by Wednesday morning. America may also need to wait for close Congressional races to have final counts for determining which party has control of either house.

The Nasdaq Composite after the election

Election Day Day After Week After Month Later Year End 11/3/20203.85%3.52%10.90%15.48%11/8/20161.11%1.58%4.31%3.65%11/6/2012-2.48%-4.25%-0.75%0.25%11/4/2008-5.53%-11.19%-18.79%-11.41%11/2/20040.98%2.95%8.00%9.61%11/7/2000-5.39%-8.12%-19.41%-27.67%11/5/19961.34%2.23%5.78%5.04%11/3/19920.16%3.83%8.56%11.97%11/8/1988-0.29%-1.77%-0.96%0.67%11/6/1984-0.32%-1.08%-4.58%-1.27%11/4/19801.49%0.97%6.75%4.76%Average-0.46%-1.03%-0.02%1.01%Median0.16%0.97%4.31%3.65%

Source: CNBC

The “election is now center stage as the next catalyst for financial markets,” said Amy Ho, executive director of strategic research at JPMorgan. “We caution that uncertainty could linger on the outcome as the timeline for certifying election results could take days for the presidential race and weeks for the House races.”

This election comes amid a strong year for stocks that has pushed the broader market to all-time highs. With a gain of about 20%, 2024 has seen the best first 10 months of a presidential election year since 1936, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO

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