Nvidia options trades indicate Q4 and Q1 rallies: Strategist

Options trades indicate that Nvidia (NVDA) could be ramping up for rapid growth in the fourth quarter into the first quarter of 2025, ayCrest managing director David Boole tells Morning Brief Hosts Seana Smith and Brad Smith. Boole says Nvidia’s next “catalyst simply could be seasonality,” explaining, “I’ve noticed that Nvidia stock has been incredibly strong in Q4 and especially into Q1.” He notes this thesis is supported by recent options market trading. “We’re kind of exiting this regime where I look at the options where investors have been using Nvidia options that are priced very high because the stock moves so much, they’re not necessarily rich to extract some income, selling calls against long stock selling puts be willing to buy it lower. And now we’re back,” Boole elaborates. “It seems after this huge trade on Thursday into a regime where clients are buying Nvidia calls, and that in itself can, apart from the fundamental story, of course, can help propel the stock higher, where if there’s a surge in upside call buying.” He calls back to this trend being a “hallmark” of Nvidia’s 2023 and early 2024 rallies: “Seems like we could be getting back to that type of regime where investors are reaching for the upside via Nvidia calls.” Given the “unusual” size of Thursday’s options play, Boole says the activity could exacerbate the rally he expects from Nvidia. “There’s a story in the options market, there’s a story outside of the options market, [and] I think it’s all intertwined. But if you have a lot of investors that are long calls on the upside and dealers and market makers that are selling these calls are hedged, as the stock goes higher, they need to buy the stock as the stock rallies.
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