The first week of September trading took a toll on Nvidia (NVDA) shares, which is currently trying to recover losses, and weighing on the major averages (^DJI, ^GSPC, ^IXIC) as the chip giant struggles to live up to its sky-high expectations.
Citigroup head of US equity strategy Scott Chronert joins Morning Brief to discuss Nvidia’s outlook and how investors can prepare for a pullback.
Chronert notes that while Nvidia is expected to see 40% earnings growth in 2025, its impact on the tech-heavy indexes, particularly the S&P 500, will start to decrease. “What we’re looking at is the pattern over the past 15 months, going back to May of ’23, when they first gave us a significant upside surprise and guidance raise. What’s happened since then is that they’ve continued to raise guidance with each quarter, but that stair-step function is decelerating,” he explains.
As Nvidia’s guidance lifts continue to decelerate, Chronert argues, “what this tells us is that it’s still a really important stock for index direction. At 6% plus of the index, it’s going to be. But in terms of the more significant upside that it’s contributed to the S&P, we think that certainly lessens from here.”
He adds that when Big Tech and the Magnificent Seven dipped to about in mid-July, he encouraged investors to “play ‘growth’ as defensive around concerns of economic weakening.” He calls this strategy “a pretty good playbook” as his year-end target for the S&P 500 sits at 5,600. He notes that if the index falls closer to 5,200, “your risk reward begins to get much more attractive going into the year-end.”
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