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TRUMP FLOATS A MAJOR CAPITAL GAINS TAX CHANGE
President Trump is reportedly considering changes to capital gains taxes ahead of the midterms, including indexing gains to inflation and dramatically increasing the tax exemption for primary residences. If enacted, the changes could reduce taxes for investors and homeowners while potentially encouraging people sitting on large gains to finally sell.
HOW CAPITAL GAINS TAXES WORK
Investments held for less than one year are generally taxed as ordinary income, with federal rates reaching 37%. Investments held longer than a year receive preferential rates of 0%, 15%, or 20%. Higher-income investors can also owe the 3.8% Net Investment Tax.
INDEXING CAPITAL GAINS TO INFLATION
Currently, the tax code generally taxes nominal profits without adjusting the original investment for inflation. Someone who invested $100,000 decades ago could owe taxes even if their investment merely maintained its purchasing power. The proposed solution would increase an investor’s cost basis by inflation.
A MUCH LARGER HOME SALE EXEMPTION
Homeowners can currently exclude $250K of gains if single or $500K if married when selling a qualifying primary residence. This was established in 1997 and has never been adjusted for inflation, despite enormous increases in home prices.
One proposal could effectively raise the married exemption toward $2 million. A couple with a $1 million gain that might currently owe significant federal tax could potentially owe nothing under a substantially larger exemption.
THE “LOCK-IN EFFECT”
Capital gains taxes can discourage investors and homeowners from selling appreciated assets. Older homeowners in particular may choose to remain in valuable homes rather than trigger a large tax bill. Some instead hold their properties until death, when heirs may receive a stepped-up cost basis.
Increasing the home exemption could encourage those owners to downsize sooner, potentially unlocking additional housing inventory. Lower investment taxes could similarly encourage investors sitting on enormous unrealized gains to rebalance or sell.
WHO BENEFITS THE MOST
The biggest criticism is that capital gains tax reductions disproportionately benefit wealthier households because they own the majority of appreciating financial assets. Lower taxes could increase selling and market liquidity, but they could also worsen the federal deficit while providing relatively little direct benefit to Americans who do not own investments.
THE BIG ROADBLOCK
Despite the headlines, there is currently no formal Trump proposal. The discussion stems from comments by economic advisers indicating Trump is interested in ideas including inflation indexing and a larger home exemption.
Passing major changes through Congress before the midterms appears difficult. Attempting to index gains through Treasury regulations without Congress could also face major legal challenges. Retroactively applying inflation adjustments could potentially cost the government enormous amounts of revenue.
WHAT COULD REALISTICALLY CHANGE
Full inflation indexing appears unlikely, but smaller reforms may have a better chance. Potential changes include increasing and indexing the primary residence exemption, raising the $3,000 annual capital-loss deduction that has remained unchanged since 1977, indexing the Net Investment Income Tax thresholds to inflation, and changing how dividends are taxed.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Eliminating or dramatically reducing capital gains taxes would have enormous implications for investors, housing, government revenue, and asset prices, but the current discussion is far from becoming law. The more realistic outcome would be targeted reforms to tax provisions that have remained frozen for decades, particularly the home-sale exemption and capital-loss deduction.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Trump’s New Tax Reduction
00:01:09 – Existing Capital Gains Tax Rates
00:02:45 – Lowering Capital Gains
00:06:04 – Protecting What You’ve Built
00:07:55 – The Wealth Effect
00:10:56 – Chance Of Passing
00:13:45 – My Thoughts / Suggestions
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