This chart shows the risk metric for Bitcoin, the Total Market Cap, Ethereum and various other altcoins. The purpose of the Risk metrics is not to predict price bottoms nor price tops, but rather to identify areas that should be attractive buying- or selling points in the longer term. Low Risk indicates potentially interesting buying areas and high Risk indicates potentially interesting selling areas. The formulas for creating the metric are unpublished and are only known to Benjamin Cowen, the creator. The formulas do account for diminishing returns.
All crypto assets are created after Bitcoin and have therefore experienced less market cycles that could be used to fit data to. Sometimes the behavior of certain assets is also very unclear. We therefore assign a confidence parameter from 1 to 9 to each Risk Metric, those with higher confidence are more likely to produce reasonable predictions, while for lower confidence assets it is less clear. Lower confidence assets might also need re-fitting in the future, after more market cycle tops/bottoms are in.
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