The Last Week of Q2 Season Begins with Worsening Economic Data

Market Whiplash

Last week started out with disappointing results from McDonald’s (MCD) and Microsoft (MSFT). In the middle of the week, both Fed commentary which nearly confirmed a September rate cut and outstanding Meta (META) results lifted markets, only to be undone on Thursday and Friday by weaker-than-expected jobs data.

Earnings season continues to plod along, with more companies beating EPS estimates than the long-run historical average, yet the amount by which these companies are beating is less than usual. Mega tech results, closely watched for signs of continuing AI demand, came in mixed. In addition to AI updates, there were other key metrics that investors were watching closely. For Microsoft, slowing cloud revenues caused investors to punish the stock after the report. Meta shares were rewarded after they reported strong ad revs and better-than-expected revenue guidance for Q3. By contrast, Amazon’s (AMZN) stock took a leg lower after reporting waning ad revenues. Apple (AAPL) was the wild card here, and although sales in China continued to bottom-out, better-than-expected revenues for the iPhone and Services segments led to an uptick after the report.

According to FactSet, the current consensus for S&P 500® EPS growth is for 11.5% YoY, an increase from 9.8% last week. Thus far, 78% of companies that have reported have surpassed analyst profit estimates, while only 59% have beaten on revenues.

The FOMC meeting and economic data were also in focus this week. On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell all but confirmed the first rate cut since 2020 would likely occur at the September meeting. There is also a high probability of rate cuts at the November and December meetings as well, according to the CME FedWatch tool. An additional 3 cuts are expected in the first half of 2025.

Now the question is becoming whether or not the Fed waited too long to cut rates as certain economic indicators show signs of weakening. On Tuesday, the June JOLTS report showed that job openings slowed for the month, and both hiring and quit rates decreased. The cooling jobs data continued on Thursday when Initial Jobless Claims came in higher-than-expected for the week prior. It all culminated with a disappointing June jobs report on Friday. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) of 114,000 were well-below expectations, unemployment ticked up to 4.3%, the highest rate in nearly 3 years, and wage growth grew less-than-anticipated. In response, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite were all down more than 2%.

The Final (and Busiest) Peak Week of the Q2 Season is Up

This week concludes the final peak week for the second quarter earnings season, with 3,908 companies expected to report from a smattering of industries. Big names include: Caterpillar (CAT), Disney (DIS), Airbnb (ABNB), Lyft (LYFT), Reddit (RDDT), Eli Lilly (LLY), and more.

Outlier Earnings Dates this Week

Academic research shows that when a company confirms a quarterly earnings date that is later than when they have historically reported, it’s typically a sign that the company will share bad news on their upcoming call, while moving a release date earlier suggests the opposite.

This week, we get results from a number of large companies on major indexes that have pushed their Q2 2024 earnings dates outside of their historical norms. Fifteen companies within the S&P 500 confirmed outlier earnings dates for this week, all of which are later than usual and therefore have negative DateBreaks Factors. Those names are Williams Companies (WMB), CSX Corp. (CSX), IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX), DaVita Inc. (DVA), Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP), Baxter International (BAX), MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX), Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT), NiSource Inc (NI), Global Payments, Inc. (GPN), Rockwell Automation Inc (ROK), Parker-Hannifin Corporation (PH), Martin Marietta Materials (MLM), and Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD).

CSX Corp. (CSX)

Company Confirmed Report Date: Monday, August 5, AMC

Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Thursday, July 18, AMC

DateBreaks Factor: -2*

* Wall Street Horizon DateBreaks Factor: statistical measurement of how an earnings date (confirmed or revised) compares to the reporting company’s 5-year trend for the same quarter. Negative means the earnings date is confirmed to be later than historical average while Positive is earlier. Click to enlarge

CSX is set to report Q2 2024 results on Monday, August 5, over two weeks later than usual, and the first time they’ve ever reported Q2 in the month of August. This also appears to be their first Monday report in at least the last decade, as they usually favor a Tuesday or Wednesday report date.

On March 26, a massive container ship crashed into Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge, causing it to collapse and closing the port for the majority of Q2. Baltimore is the second-largest coal export port, and CSX has a major coal shipping segment, which was negatively impacted by the closing of the port. In the quarters prior to this disaster, CSX and its peers have been dealing with a global freight recession, which experts believe has bottomed, but freight rates will likely remain low in 2025 on the road to recovery.

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)

Company Confirmed Report Date: Tuesday, August 6, BMO

Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Tuesday, July 30, BMO

DateBreaks Factor: -2*

Caterpillar is set to report Q2 2024 results on Tuesday, August 6, a week later than anticipated. This also pushed results into the 32nd week of the year, while the industrials giant tends to report in the 30th or 31st week of the year. This would be the latest Q2 report ever for CAT.

Caterpillar tends to serve as a bellwether for global economic health as the world’s leading manufacturer of machinery and construction equipment. Last quarter, the company warned that sales were cooling as dealers tightened up on equipment inventories after a multi-month boom in demand. Investors will be looking for updates on machinery sales, which could indicate something broader about the global economy.

VF Corporation (VFC)

Company Confirmed Report Date: Tuesday, August 6, BMO

Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Tuesday, July 30, BMO

DateBreaks Factor: -2*

VF Corp is set to report FQ1 2025 results on Tuesday, August 6, a week later than anticipated. Since switching to a fiscal year-end of March 31 in 2018, this is the latest they’ve reported Q1 results, and the first time they’ve reported them in the 32nd week of the year.

On May 22, VFC announced they had tapped Spotify’s Paul Vogel as their new CFO. Vogel took his post on July 8, which could explain the latter than usual earnings date. VFC, like many other apparel companies, has struggled this year to attract consumers that are increasingly more discerning with how they spend their discretionary dollars, especially as many of the brands they own (North Face, Vans, Timberland) tend to be on the middle-higher end.

Q2 Earnings Wave

This marks the final peak week of Q2 earnings season, with 3,908 companies expected to report. Currently, August 8 is predicted to be the most active day with 1,411 companies anticipated to report. Thus far, 80% of companies have confirmed their earnings date (out of our universe of 11,000+ global names), and 37% have reported results.

1 Earnings Release FY24 Q4 – Microsoft Cloud Strength Drives Fourth Quarter Results, July 30, 2024

2 Meta Reports Second Quarter 2024 Results, July 31, 2024

3 Amazon.com Announces Second Quarter Results, August 1, 2024

4 Apple reports third quarter results, August 1, 2024

5 FactSet Earnings Insight, FactSet, John Butters, August 2, 2024

6 FactSet Earnings Insight, FactSet, John Butters, August 2, 2024

7 Fed recap: Chair Powell gives the September rate cut signal traders were hoping for, CNBC, Darla Mercado, July 31, 2024

8 FedWatch, CME Group, August 2, 2024

9 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, June 30, 2024

10 UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS, US Department of Labor, August 1, 2024

11 July Employment Situation Summary, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, August 2, 2024

12 Time Will Tell: Information in the Timing of Scheduled Earnings News, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Eric C. So, Travis L. Johnson, Dec, 2018

13 CSX CORP. ANNOUNCES FIRST QUARTER 2024 RESULTS, April 17, 2024

14 Caterpillar Inc. 1Q 2024 Earnings Release, April 25, 2024

15 VF Corporation Appoints Paul Vogel, Chief Financial Officer, May 22, 2024

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