rewrite this title and make it good for SEOAmbuja merger a long-term positive, stock to track fundamentals over headlines: Amnish Aggarwal

Shares of Ambuja Cements were in focus after market participants assessed the likely impact of ongoing consolidation within the group. Responding to whether Ambuja shareholders could see a positive reaction in the stock, Amnish Aggarwal from Prabhudas Lilladher highlighted that the merger is directionally beneficial, though near-term movements may be driven more by fundamentals than headlines.

“Directionally it is positive because operational synergies they have been trying to drive over the last couple of years but definitely lot of corporate overheads and other things will get rationalised and once all the companies come under one umbrella,” Aggarwal said, adding that investors need to examine the swap ratio carefully. According to him, there is limited valuation gap between Ambuja and ACC, meaning the ratio does not clearly favour either entity. While Orient Cement could see some upside, the bigger benefit for Ambuja lies in long-term efficiency gains as consolidation progresses. “It is going to be positive for Ambuja in the long term but the stock will move more because already all these companies are getting consolidated into Abuja, so the stock will move more on the fundamentals rather than purely on the news of this merger.”

Turning to the infrastructure space, Aggarwal noted that order activity has begun to pick up meaningfully after a subdued phase. With examples of large, back-to-back order wins emerging, visibility for the sector appears to be improving. “The infra company is particularly if you look at past two to three quarters, the order books have not been growing,” he said, pointing out that award activity across roads and other projects had been weak earlier. However, the recent momentum could mark a shift. “If the momentum of this order inflows they continue over the next say month or two… there could be definitely positive movement in some of the infra stocks,” he added, especially in segments like hydroelectric projects, airports and roads.

On real estate, Aggarwal struck a cautious tone as the sector heads into the new year. He said the strong rally of the past few years has already played out in most major markets. “The realty stocks… have been very range bound and the reason for that is that the kind of uptick we have seen in these stocks in the last couple of years that has been pretty significant,” he said. While growth has not turned negative, he believes it has peaked, making further outsized gains difficult. Rising inventory in certain markets and consolidation could keep stocks sideways despite support from lower interest rates. “In the near to medium-term I do not see major performance to come from the realty players.”

Aggarwal also shared his view on platform companies, noting that while the structural shift from brick-and-mortar to digital channels continues to drive sales growth, profitability remains a key concern. “Not many companies are having enough profitability or margins at this point of time,” he said. Among the larger names, he finds Eternal attractive after a sharp correction. “It has corrected from 340, 350 levels to the current levels of 280, 285. The balance sheet remains strong although one should not expect any fireworks in terms of growth… but Eternal is one stock which looks good to us at this point of time.”

On the much-discussed GLP-1 opportunity and broader pharma space, Aggarwal maintained that his positive stance on select pharmaceutical names remains structural rather than event-driven. “In case of pharma we have been structurally more positive on some of the names like your Sun is there, Lupin is there and not specific with this opportunity.” Overall, while near-term market movements may remain stock-specific, Aggarwal’s commentary suggests that consolidation benefits, improving infrastructure visibility and selective bottom-up opportunities are likely to shape investor strategies in the months ahead.